Fair Warning -- If this post sounds a bit snarky, it's because this is only the 15th day of 2008 and I'm already tired of the primary season. How are we ever going to make it to February 5th much less to Election Day?
Kudos to Romney -- After spending over $100 million dollars, he finally won a contested race. That’s…uh…impressive.
He didn’t buy his win -- Instead of buying a victory Romney tried a new tactic--selling out. In a stunning display of pandering, he sold out the so-called "economic conservative" wing of the party in order to curry favor with the downtrodden Michigan voters. As Jennifer Rubin wrote in her post Where Did The Economic Conservatives Go?
[W]hat does [Romney's speech] have to do with a conservative, free market view of the U.S. economy? Are we now reduced to mimicking Soviet industrial policy? And where does this end? Surely every stumbling industry in the U.S. which failed to get its house in order should line up at the door to get their slice of the pie. Really, if not Romney, at least his conservatives supporters should have the intellectual honesty to say "What?!" But such is politics and it may work.
Oh, and about those supporters? None of them criticized him for it. His friends at The Corner turned their heads and pretended that no one heard about it. Likewise, Hugh Hewitt didn’t mention that his favorite governor was embracing socialism. And the Club for Growth--a group which launches attack ads if Huckabee even pays sales tax--showed that they really are in Romney's pocket by remaining silent. As Rubin said, such is politics.
Frontrunner for Four Days -- For the next four days Romney is considered to be the "frontrunner"…just as McCain was for six days after NH…just as Huckabee was for five days after Iowa…
Isn't it rather silly to call someone a "frontrunner" after every single primary or caucus?
Coming Soon: The FredHeads Freakout -- In five days we can finally say goodbye to Fred Thompson. It can't come soon enough.
I was one of the original "FredHeads" who eagerly waited (and waited…and waited…) for him to get in the race so that he could save us from Giuliani. Back in those humid days of summer we fantasized about how he would be the second coming of Reagan only to find he was third coming of Bob Dole. Soon after getting into the race it was clear that he was waiting for the day he could drop out.
What irks me now, though, is not Thompson but the remaining FredHeads. They become ecstatic when he makes any motion that might signal he is running for the Presidency. ("Look, Fred got off his bus to shake someone's hand! And he made eye contact without scowling! He's back baby!) In the last debate he managed to read the cue cards that Mary Matalin gave him while only saying "um" and "ah" 237 times; his supporters went insane with excitement. I realize FredHeads are "conservatives" but it's rather sad to see a group have such conservative expectations about a candidate.
Thompson seems like a decent guy who just really doesn't want the hassle of being President. He's also smart enough to know that he was a lackluster Senator who has no ability to lead a Boy Scout troop much less a nation. Once the South Carolinians have their say, he'll be free to bow out gracefully. Now if his supporters could only come to the same realization. Let him go, FredHeads, just let him go. Let the poor man go home to his beautiful wife, his adorable kids, and his multi-million dollar acting gig. That's the least you can do for a guy who has done so much for you.
McCain vs. McCain -- Six days ago I predicted that McCain would not win another primary until Super Tuesday. Anyone who was paying attention in Michigan will probably agree. Whatever his faults as a candidate, McCain compounds them by being an absolutely horrible campaigner.
Recently I listened to an entire speech he gave at one of his standard town hall-style events. He opened by telling several jokes about how nobody from Arizona can get elected President and then capped it off by saying, "Remember the words of Chairman Mao: ‘It’s always darkest before it’s totally black.’."
Unfortunately, that was the most inspiring part of the speech.
As if this wasn't enough to rally his supporters he began talking about the state's economic problems only to digress into a defense of his views on global warming. Apparently since Romney, Huckabee, and Thompson had gone easy on him all week, McCain felt the need to serve as his own own worst enemy. He plays that role all too well.
Huckabee's Problem (Part I) -- Romney's win in MI helps clear a path for Huckabee to win SC. But I'm not so sure it matters anymore.
A large section of the GOP has made it quite clear that they will do whatever it takes to ensure that the hillbilly preacher doesn't win the nomination. Many of them--and we all know who they are--will lie about his record and his positions in order to put an end to his campaign. They know that while they may lose the trust of a few people, most will let them get away with the deceit since "that's politics."
To those people who told me that I was naïve, let me say: You were more right than you know. I never, ever would have believed that "our people" would do this sort of thing. I thought the primary would be a fair fight in which to decide who would be the best candidate. Now I know better.
Huckabee's Problem (Part II) -- Huckabee can't overcome the forces lined up against him. Still, he doesn't need to make their hateful task any easier. He won Iowa and then showed that he hadn't prepared for the scenario the campaign might continue after January 5th. He squandered his momentum by not releasing a major policy proposal since before the caucus. He's failed to add new staff or to expand his organization. And while he has the ability to appeal to a broad range of voters he continues to act as if he is only interested in the religious crowd.
Worst of all, he's allowed his enemies to distort his record and his positions. Huckabee has remained silent while Rush Limbaugh, Hugh Hewitt, and Mark Levin go on the radio every day and call him a "liberal." Even their loyal listeners are tired of such nonsense, which is why he should call them all out publicly, challenging them to "put up or shut up." By revealing that they don’t know what they're talking about--they're just repeating the talking points put out by the Romney campaign--Huckabee would shore up the conservative base that he's been losing.
The time is now, Governor. Start fighting back before it's too late.
Is That A Dark Cloud Forming? -- I know its early in the race and I don’t want to be pessimistic but I have to ask: Doesn't it look like we're going to have a Democrat in the White House next year?
"Are we now reduced to mimicking Soviet industrial policy? "
No, try Japanese industrial policy. At least that worked when they picked a winner. The problem comes when the "best and the brightest" in the capital pick a loser, which is what the Big Three tend to be in the long term.
I grew up in Michigan and just moved away last year, so it doesn't please me to say that, but Michigan is going to need to grow in some way other than trying to put the auto industry on life support.
Joe,
As usual, very well written. I do think Huckabee can capture the opportunity presented by McCain's loss to win parts of SC that aren't evangelical havens. Marvin Olasky wrote a great piece in World Magazine on the need for Huckabee to reach out to secular voters. It seems he could defend himself vigorously against Rush, Hewitt, and the others while simultaneously reaching out to secular voters through compelling policy arguments.
You predicted Huckabee could win two out of the three post-NH primaries (MI, SC, and FL). Still think so?
Thanks as always,
Alex
Kudos for your honesty about Huckabee's weaknesses as a candidate. In time, perhaps you will also see that many of those who don't like Huckabee simply don't like his policies instead of assuming that it's all part of a conspiracy by the GOP elite. I'd be willing to bet that the vast majority of Republican primary voters don't know or care that much about what Rush or Hugh or NRO have to say.
Perhaps Huckabee acts as if he's only interested in the religious crowd because . . . he IS just interested in the religious crowd. He has played identity politics to a far greater degree than any candidate on either side. He says loud and clear "Vote for me because I'm a Christian leader." His motto on his website is: "Faith. Family. Freedom." Not exactly the same appeal used by Abe Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt or even Reagan. And then this past Sunday he goes to a Baptist megachurch in SC to say that only Christians are saved. What really puzzles me is that he never, ever that I can recall played the religion card when he was governor. Now, that seems to be the only card in his deck. Stick a fork in him cause he's done.
Alex You predicted Huckabee could win two out of the three post-NH primaries (MI, SC, and FL). Still think so?
I think he'll win SC which should make him the "frontrunner" going into FL. Giuliani is weak and McCain should be old news by then. That leaves Romney as a wild card.
I still think he can win both but I hadn't factored in the Enemy variable. Once he wins SC, the establishment will unleash everything they have on him to prevent him winning in FL. That may be enough to knock him down and let Romney take the win.
Joe,
Calculated and accurate assessment. I am a Huckabee guy. Given to the campaign and I support him via email and daily conversations.
Ex preacher says...
"I'd be willing to bet that the vast majority of Republican primary voters don't know or care that much about what Rush or Hugh or NRO have to say."
Think again. Millions of republican voters tune in to these shows during the day and have come to take their talking points or "facts" for granted. Their support is essential to a candidates success in the primaries. I am flummoxed as to why the attack Huckabee so virulently, but if left to my own devices I have to assume this....
The republican elite treat evangelical Christians like the "crazy grandma in the cellar". Yea we love her but don't let her out because she will embarrass us and you know how crazy she can be...
I have been an avid talk radio listener for years. I loved Reagan and supported him all through the 80s. But lets face it, Rush, Hannity, Levin and Hugh treat his memory/legacy as if it was some sort of alter that we must worship at forever. Today, Rush even went so far as to accuse Newt Gingrich as debasing the Reagan legacy. Wow, the hubris of that guy. We have given the talking heads way too much credit/power over the last 16 years and I believe we are about to pay the price for it in this primary. By the way... my days of slavishly following talk radio is over.
You are right also when you say, Huck must confront them or fail... After SC... there will be blood.
Sorry, I don't get this.
Just who is "the establishment" who will do all these bad things to poor Huckabee?
Starting to sound a bit like Daily Kos around here -- do we next put tin foil hats on and look for black helicopters?
Come on Joe, if Huckabee can't handle the heat of a primary and "the establishment," how are we expected to respect him and allow him to protect us from those abroad who do not understand the rules of such Oprah Nation thinking?
Huckabee whining is getting tiresome. And if he is going to plagiarize key campaign ideas, does this mean he is going to govern by Googling?
As I have asked, was Huckabee this disingenuous as a pastor?
Please say no.
I think you're right... and it makes me very sad.
With the GOP so fractured, we are going to have a Democrat in the White House. All because the "GOP elite" had already decided who should be the candidate before the primaries began. And it breaks my heart to see Christian leaders lining up behind candidates that could care less about the sanctity of life, religious freedom and marriage.
It's true... a nation deserves the leaders it elects. Unfortunately, our children will pay the price.
I think you're right... and it makes me very sad.
With the GOP so fractured, we are going to have a Democrat in the White House. All because the "GOP elite" had already decided who should be the candidate before the primaries began. And it breaks my heart to see Christian leaders lining up behind candidates that could care less about the sanctity of life, religious freedom and marriage.
It's true... a nation deserves the leaders it elects. Unfortunately, our children will pay the price.
I think you're right... and it makes me very sad.
With the GOP so fractured, we are going to have a Democrat in the White House. All because the "GOP elite" had already decided who should be the candidate before the primaries began. And it breaks my heart to see Christian leaders lining up behind candidates that could care less about the sanctity of life, religious freedom and marriage.
It's true... a nation deserves the leaders it elects. Unfortunately, our children will pay the price.
Instead of buying a victory Romney tried a new tactic--selling out. In a stunning display of pandering, he sold out the so-called "economic conservative" wing of the party in order to curry favor with the downtrodden Michigan voters.
A little overwrought, aren't we? If you look at the quote you find that the only specific proposals he makes are CAFE relief and a commitment to more energy research. I certainly think CAFE relief is a conservative position and while increased federal research on energy may not be specifically free market, it is arguably a good idea. But, aren't you being a little hypocritical for calling Romney a sell-out in Michigan, but not Huckabee in Iowa. Look at Huckabee's specific proposals on agricultural (from Mike for Pres site):
--We must help our farmers lead the way to energy independence. (Sounds like Huckabee favors increased energy research)
--As a percentage of national income, we spend only half as much on food as people in other developed countries. Subsidies help keep our food costs low by keeping production levels high.
--We need subsidies to help our farmers compete with heavily subsidized farmers in Europe and Asia and to insulate them from the effects of natural disasters.
--We need a counter cyclical revenue program that makes payments based on low yields as well as low prices, and we need a fully-funded crop insurance program.
A large section of the GOP has made it quite clear that they will do whatever it takes to ensure that the hillbilly preacher doesn't win the nomination. Many of them--and we all know who they are--will lie about his record and his positions in order to put an end to his campaign.
Joe, I am really disappointed in you. As many here have pointed, Huckabee's big problem among many people who would be predisposed to supporting a conservative Christian candidate is that his policy positions don't match up with his rhetoric. There are countless examples of this. That you refuse to recognize this as a legitimate concern says more about you than it does about Huckabee's critics.
McCain is a terrible campaigner. I came away with the same impression.
I think we Huckabee supporters who respected NRO, Hugh Hewitt, and Rush Limbaugh expected these men and women of ideas to treat Huckabee with intellectual integrity. Instead, they have turned the arsenal of vituperation and scorn that they usually reserve for liberals onto a fellow Republican.
One thing I've learned from this is the effect of demonization on the supporters of those you demonize: it makes healing and working together a lot harder. All the more reason then...
Once he (Huckabee) wins SC, the establishment will unleash everything they have on him to prevent him winning in FL.
Joe, are you sure it is "the establishment"? Perhaps it is the Illumanati, or the Bilderburgers, or maybe the military/industrial complex that will "unleash everything" on Huckabee.
The republican elite treat evangelical Christians like the "crazy grandma in the cellar". Yea we love her but don't let her out because she will embarrass us and you know how crazy she can be...
Sweet Jebus, this is just sad. What's next, Huckaee can't get any traction "cuz da' Man is keepin' him down" or he's being "oppressed by the heavy hand of the patriarchy"? My goodness, listen to yourselves people. You are starting to sound like (shudder) Democrats. There are a lot of evangelicals that (wait for it) DON'T SUPPORT HUCKABEE. Get over yourselves Huckabee supporters. You are not the Christian or even evangelical benchmark. I don't like Huckabee as a candidate; I imagine he is a decent enough man, but I don't support him as a president. I have given my reasons for opposing him. I am not, nor have I ever been in the pay of any presidential campaign (unlike the owner of this blog) or any political party. I am not part of "the establishment". It is this attitude among many Huckabee supporter that is making it very hard for me to even consider supporting him if he is the eventual candidate.
We have given the talking heads way too much credit/power over the last 16 years and I believe we are about to pay the price for it in this primary.
This is somewhat ignorant. Maybe talk radio will have an effect on the primaries. The real butt-whooping that will come in November will not be Rush's fault. Maybe Hannity's since he's convinced Gulliani is a "real" conservative. The simple fact is the Republican Party has not offered up ANY candidates that haven't been left of center on key policies to the constituents and most are on tape actually saying it. ("I'm a Republican mayor, but I'm really not.")
McCain= Illegals, Tax Cuts, Free Speech
Gulliani= Gun Control, Same Sex Relationships, Marital Fidelity
Rommney= Abortion, Taxes/Fees, Lies at the drop of a hat
Huckabee= Illegals (Tuition anyone?) Taxes, Crime
Paul= Against big government but sends a LOT of pork home, naieve on the Mid east
Thompson=I don't really know, to be honest. He hasn't made me care enough to find out.
Just saying that now you've changed your mind, or things will be different, does not cut it. We've heard that countless times before and been burnt by the lies countless times before. Quite simply, I don't believe them anymore. If your record says left but your mouth says right...looks like a duck....
So, blame "the establishment" or the "talking heads" but there isn't any candidate that makes me or anyone I've talked to about it WANT to vote FOR them. As in 06, the Republican slogan for 08 will be "Vote for us because the Dems are scary." It will have the same result.
DD
Joe,
I'm a Huckabee supporter, too, but I'm wondering where you've heard that he will win SC. I know that polls can't be trusted nowadays, but isn't there a clear trend indicating McCain well in front? I hope not; I just want to know why you're confident in this regard.
I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that a Dem will be POTUS in 08. The Dems are just as fractured right now as we are, perhaps moreso. Some Dems have invested so much in an Obama presidency that if he does not get the nomination, many will not vote b/c of their disdain (apathy) for HRC. Once we have a nominee, you will see a circling of the wagons for the candidate, particularly if its McCain or Romney. We are a party that can have a healthy debate on the issues, but when it comes time to unite behind a candidate, the support will likely be strong - however, not as rabid as W's candidacy was (at least as it was here in the South).
I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that a Dem will be POTUS in 08. The Dems are just as fractured right now as we are, perhaps moreso. Some Dems have invested so much in an Obama presidency that if he does not get the nomination, many will not vote b/c of their disdain (apathy) for HRC. Once we have a nominee, you will see a circling of the wagons for the candidate, particularly if its McCain or Romney. We are a party that can have a healthy debate on the issues, but when it comes time to unite behind a candidate, the support will likely be strong - however, not as rabid as W's candidacy was (at least as it was here in the South).
ucfengr writes:
“Joe, are you sure it is ‘the establishment’? Perhaps it is the Illumanati, or the Bilderburgers, or maybe the military/industrial complex that will ‘unleash everything’ on Huckabee.”
Cute, but dishonest. What about the RNC and local chapters thereof. National, state, and local elected officials. Libertarian think-tanks (e.g. Cato Institute). Right-wing media (e.g. WSJ, NRO). Talk-radio (e.g. Rush, Hewitt). I assume that’s the sort of thing that Joe has it mind.
When you find it necessary to caricature his position, what does that say about your own position?
At least the people who dislike Huckabee dislike Mccain more. That we have on our side and has helped a bit. Rush even bad it clear that Mccain would be worse than Huckabee although he dislikes them both.
We are all so involved right now that it is easy to see the dark cloud over the GOP. But look at the racial issues going on in the Democratic side right now. I would trade the issues we are having for that mess any day and it will certainly hurt the dems in the general election because of it.
After Huckabee wins the GOP nomination =-) I think the tempers from his GOP opponents will slowly fade and we will unite to attack a common enemy. That being Barack Obama or Hilliary.
Just a bit of a correction from my last post:
Shawn Troxel writes:
18
At least the people who dislike Huckabee dislike Mccain more. That we have on our side and has helped a bit. Rush even made it clear that Mccain would be worse than Huckabee although he dislikes them both.
We are all so involved right now that it is easy to see the dark cloud over the GOP. But look at the racial issues going on in the Democratic side right now. I would trade the issues we are having for that mess any day and it will certainly hurt the dems in the general election because of it.
After Huckabee wins the GOP nomination =-) I think the tempers from his GOP opponents will slowly fade and we will unite to defeat a common enemy. That being Barack Obama or Hilliary.
Joe, it was a sad night. My first choice by a mile is Gov. Huckabee. My second choice is Sen. McCain. I cannot see voting for Gov. Romney or Mayor Guiliani, even in the general. Joe is right. Rush and much of talk radio are anti-Huckabee and anti-McCain. Fox and Sean Hannity, in particular, are anti-Huckabee. Look at the softballs Hannity lays up for Sen. Thompson, Romney and Guiliani compared to the questions he asks Gov. Huckabee. I absolutely agree that Gov. Huckabee should fight back. If the voters voted via referendum to increase a tax, is it fair to say Gov. Huckabee raised taxes? If Gov. Huckabee is operating under a court order, is it fair not to provide that context? Even then, the net increase in taxes in 10.5 years was the same as Romney in 4 years. Romney is a data guy. Well, Romney raised fee 2.5 times more on a per year basis than the net increase in taxes Huckabee is supposedly responsible for. Please Gov. Huckabee fight back! If Gov. Huckabee is not welcome in the republican party, then neither am I. Perhaps some indirect talk (not by Huckabee, himself) of a third party candidancy is in order to dial back the republican establishment complete lack of fairness. If Huckabee goes down partially due to hacket job that his been done to him by the conservative media and republican establishment, I believe there will be a price for the party. I sure hope there is!
Joe, it was a sad night. My first choice by a mile is Gov. Huckabee. My second choice is Sen. McCain. I cannot see voting for Gov. Romney or Mayor Guiliani, even in the general. Joe is right. Rush and much of talk radio are anti-Huckabee and anti-McCain. Fox and Sean Hannity, in particular, are anti-Huckabee. Look at the softballs Hannity lays up for Sen. Thompson, Romney and Guiliani compared to the questions he asks Gov. Huckabee. I absolutely agree that Gov. Huckabee should fight back. If the voters voted via referendum to increase a tax, is it fair to say Gov. Huckabee raised taxes? If Gov. Huckabee is operating under a court order, is it fair not to provide that context? Even then, the net increase in taxes in 10.5 years was the same as Romney in 4 years. Romney is a data guy. Well, Romney raised fee 2.5 times more on a per year basis than the net increase in taxes Huckabee is supposedly responsible for. Please Gov. Huckabee fight back! If Gov. Huckabee is not welcome in the republican party, then neither am I. Perhaps some indirect talk (not by Huckabee, himself) of a third party candidancy is in order to dial back the republican establishment complete lack of fairness. If Huckabee goes down partially due to hacket job that his been done to him by the conservative media and republican establishment, I believe there will be a price for the party. I sure hope there is!
You seem to have left out the main reason that Romney won Michigan: he has strong personal ties to the state. His dad, George Romney, was the head of American Motors Corporation in Detroit from 1954 to 1962 and governor of Michigan from 1963 to 1969. Mitt was born in Michigan, and spent all of his growing up years in Michigan. Even after Mitt left Michigan, both of his parents and several other relatives remained Michigan residents. His parents both died in Michigan in the 1990s and are buried in Michigan.
The CNN exit poll confirms that he won due to these ties. Among the 42% who said that Romney's ties to Michigan were important, Romney beat McCain 58% to 17%. Among the 56% who said Romney's ties to Michigan were not important, McCain won 39% to 23%. Given Romney's status as favorite son, this election was a victory for McCain.
Your reports of McCain's demise are greatly exaggerated. McCain is the clear frontrunner and the man to beat. He has a commanding lead over Huckabee in SC, which will not be affected significantly by the results in Michigan. Poll after poll has shown that McCain and Giuliani are the only ones who can beat Clinton or Obama. Personally, I'd rather see Huckabee get the nomination as he would be the easiest to beat in November, but it sure looks to me like McCain has this one almost locked up.
> Starting to sound a bit like Daily Kos around here -- do
> we next put tin foil hats on and look for
> black helicopters?
> Huckaee can't get any traction "cuz
> da' Man is keepin' him down"
In mocking Joe's statement that the establishment is against Huckabee, you provide a perfect example of what's he on about. The right side of the blogosphere is awash these days in insults and bigotry directed at Huckabee. The average commenter on Huckabee or Lucianne or RedState who disagrees *politely* (as some have done here) is among a small minority. Someone who says otherwise is either a liar or blind to his or her own biases.
When you have the distinguished pundits on the Corner tossing around a rumor saying that Huckabee had gastric bypass, I think you can say that something is afoot. The Corner has posters supporting Mitt (obviously), McCain, Thompson, Rudy and even Ron Paul for crying out loud, but not a *single* Huckabee supporter. Byron York and Jim Geraghty have managed to stand out not as Huck supporters but simply because they've reported the facts and tried to stay calm about Huckabee (even if they don't support him).
Actually ex-preacher McCain doesn't
have a commanding lead in SC. A fox
poll today had Huckabee at 27%.
McCain at 23% and Romney at 17%. The
other polls all have Huckabee increasing
and the others declining. No McCain is
not the "front runner".
Cute, but dishonest. What about the RNC and local chapters thereof. National, state, and local elected officials. Libertarian think-tanks (e.g. Cato Institute). Right-wing media (e.g. WSJ, NRO). Talk-radio (e.g. Rush, Hewitt).
Actually, I find the notion that Rush, Cato, and the RNC conspire to marginalize Christians a bit loony. If they wanted to do that, the easiest thing to do would be to let Huckabee win the nomination and let him lose the general election.
When you find it necessary to caricature his position, what does that say about your own position?
That I've plowed the ground so thoroughly that I can kick back and have a little fun?
You know, Joe Carter, if you were a little older you might have more sympathy for someone like Fred who has to write down his points to make sure he doesn't forget them. Not because he's a blooming idiot, who doesn't understand Huckabee's record and why it's not considered conservative but because in the heat of the moment, he wants to make sure he remembers what he wants to say.
Standing in line at a pizza counter with others waiting to put in their order, I couldn't remember the word for "tray." I can't remember the names of the women in my Bible study when I want to call on them. So, I have a great deal of empathy for Thompson because I know what it's like to live in an age obsessed world were you don't want to look like a doddering old fool.
BTW, I think that if your candidate had governed and ran in accordance with the principles laid out in his plan, then he might have gotten more of the conservative vote and he wouldn't be perceived as a Republican John Edwards.
Joe, I like a lot of what Huckabee says. But some of his past actions don't jive with what he says a lot of times. Plus what he says doesn't always tie in with what he said earlier. (The Huckabee doesn't support touch backs for illegals but he basically said he does as I pointed out in the other post is a perfect example)
Overall I'm not too keen on any of the candidates. So, I'm not trying to gore Huckabee for someone else.
In mocking Joe's statement that the establishment is against Huckabee, you provide a perfect example of what's he on about. The right side of the blogosphere is awash these days in insults and bigotry directed at Huckabee.
I have been very active in these Huckabee threads and the vast majority of my posts have been about discrepancies between the Huckabee campaign's policy bullet points and Huckabee's rhetoric and criticism of the "Fair Tax". Most of my posts referenced specific statements by Huckabee and how they appear to contradict his campaign's policy positions. But honestly, I am getting a little tired about hearing about how "da' man" is trying to keep Christians down. Huckabee's problems are not the result of a "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy". His problems stem from the fact that his message is not all that conservative.
I haven't heard much talk about electability.
I just don't think Romney has as good a chance against the Democrats in November as Huckabee does. We can assume that voters on the extreme of each party will stay put, however it's the independent mushy middle that will make the difference. Does anyone believe that Mitt Romney will be able to appeal to independents (especially if Obama is the nominee)? I'm sorry, but his plastic persona and politically calculating rhetoric may not be enough. Huckabee however has the ability to draw in independents.
I will happily vote for Romney if he is the nominee, but we'd better be thinking about this long term.
“I have been an avid talk radio listener for years. I loved Reagan and supported him all through the 80s. But lets face it, Rush, Hannity, Levin and Hugh treat his memory/legacy as if it was some sort of alter that we must worship at forever. Today, Rush even went so far as to accuse Newt Gingrich as debasing the Reagan legacy. Wow, the hubris of that guy.”
Ok, so what parts of the Reagan legacy would you and other Huckabee supporters say is outdated and to be abandoned?
“I think we Huckabee supporters who respected NRO, Hugh Hewitt, and Rush Limbaugh expected these men and women of ideas to treat Huckabee with intellectual integrity. Instead, they have turned the arsenal of vituperation and scorn that they usually reserve for liberals onto a fellow Republican.”
Perhaps that’s because liberal ideas espoused by Republicans are more likely to be passed than the same ideas espoused by Democrats. And really, this is the point of a primary. We all argue about what the party will stand for in the general election. It’s nastier this time because there’s no clear front runner so everyone has a shot, but really, this is politics people, and it always has been.
“to support Huckabee, who among his other virtues brings a more amicable tone into politics while remaining a conservative”
Putting aside Metamucil comments, can you look at the words written by Huckabee supporters in this very blog and then honestly claim he brings a more amicable tone?
“Cute, but dishonest. What about the RNC and local chapters thereof. National, state, and local elected officials. Libertarian think-tanks (e.g. Cato Institute). Right-wing media (e.g. WSJ, NRO). Talk-radio (e.g. Rush, Hewitt). I assume that’s the sort of thing that Joe has it mind.”
Is it your contention that many people oppose Huckabee, or that all these groups are being organized by a grand conspiracy of the elite? And what happens then if he wins and goes on to face his vast left wing conspiracy?
“Perhaps some indirect talk (not by Huckabee, himself) of a third party candidancy is in order to dial back the republican establishment complete lack of fairness. If Huckabee goes down partially due to hacket job that his been done to him by the conservative media and republican establishment, I believe there will be a price for the party. I sure hope there is!”
If you think Huckabee is the best candidate, you need to try to persuade a majority of your party to support him. Third parties are not viable in our country and serve only to cripple one of the two major parties. If you can’t get the support of one of the parties, what makes you think you can win the support of the general public?
But if you’re simply looking to engage in some personal vengeance, then there’s no reasoning against that.
“Your reports of McCain's demise are greatly exaggerated. McCain is the clear frontrunner and the man to beat.”
No one is the front runner. Four states so far with three winners. All these states have reduced delegates anyway. This is all still just the warmup.
Darrell DeLaney writes:
"Is it your contention that many people oppose Huckabee, or that all these groups are being organized by a grand conspiracy of the elite?"
Both you and ucfengr indulge in the same dishonest rhetorical tactic, which is to recast the issue as a conspiracy theory which you then impute to Huckabee supporters in order to ridicule the claim. Once again, what does it say about your position when you find it necessary to caricature the opposing position?
I specifically identified the elements of the Establishment I was taking about. Nothing conspiratorial about it. No secret societies a la the Da Vinci Code. Try posing an honest question the next time around.
In five days we can finally say goodbye to Fred Thompson. It can't come soon enough...
...a lackluster Senator who has no ability to lead a Boy Scout troop...
After spending over $100 million dollars, he finally won a contested race...
"A bit snarky?" Try "Gangs of New York" ugly.
Joe, who was leading the delegate count before Michigan?
But I'll gladly take a lackluster Senator committed to small government over any Governor who wants to expand state power.
Both you and ucfengr indulge in the same dishonest rhetorical tactic, which is to recast the issue as a conspiracy theory which you then impute to Huckabee supporters in order to ridicule the claim.
It's you guys that are talking about "the Establishment" trying to keep Huckabee from getting the nomination. So what are you saying? Did these disparate groups (Rush, Cato, the RNC, National Review) look at Huck's record and independently come to the conclusion that he is not conservative or are they part of some "conspiracy" organized to keep Christians in their place or, worse, are they being directed from above? Which is it? You tell me.
Here's my concern about the constant references to Reagan, his legacy and why conservatives must not stray: It can sound to others like we're wanting to reach back into the past, instead of articulate and solid plan for the future. It's not a matter of changing principles, it's a matter of changing the message.
For we conservative, Reagan is an icon, but whether we like it or not there's a growing population of Americans who know little or nothing about him. Relevance matters. And if we can't communicate conservatism to a new generation in a way they relate to and understand without always referring to a former President, we're in trouble.
Frankly, to me Rush Limbaugh (a radio addiction of mine for years) sounds a lot like an old-time preacher upset that the church down the street "got themselves some of them thar drums and geetars" when he and other conservatives react as they do to Huckabee's populist tone. Huckabee is not singing out of the Standard Conservative Hymnal. That's fine with me. If we can lure undecided and independents into conservatism by not sounding like the same-old conservative pundits, that's a win.
I don't mind that the "Establishment" doesn't support Mike.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion. I wish they'd just give us Huckabee supporters the same courtesy. Why is it such a problem to FiCons that us SoCons have found somebody we really like? Why does Huckabee have to be treated as an enemy instead of someone to be valued for his skill and potential? Instead of disagreeing, his opponents resort to character assassination and name calling. The word "Huckster" is an good example of this. It's now the de facto term for Mike on the Corner. It impugns his character and paints him in a negative, deceptive light. It's playground stuff - the equivalent of "Slick Willie" and "PIAPS." Only this is stupidly cast at a fellow Republican!
The Republican party should be big enough (and mature enough!) to allow for a Republican who governed as a centrist and managed to do a lot of good against a legislature that was 90% Democratic. Phyllis Schafly says he left the Republican party in Arkansas in shambles - well it's never been more than a shambles. I lived there from 1988 to 2001, btw!
By the way, why aren't we hearing this from Huckabee himself? As annoyed as I am with the NRO and Rush type punditry and bloggers, I view them as allies. Huckabee's silence in these attacks says to me that letting these attacks pile on is part of his strategy. What he should be doing is phoning up Rush and NRO and Michelle Malkin and trying to reach out and assure them, or at least compromise. Maybe he has been doing this, but it sure doesn't seem like it from here.
The best thing Huckabee has going for him in SC is the real danger that RNC elite who are backing Romney fear McCain gaining ground in SC. I think this will translate into holding direct fire on Huckabee until FL, and more attack on McCain to try and weaken him another notch. And for Fred heads, it's over. The RNC crowd can't afford to let him take too much from Huckabee without risking it helping McCain, and since Fred winning SC is a big long shot they can't have him taking votes from Huckabee. All this points to a Huckabee win in SC followed by all hell being released on him and McCain for FL. Whatever happens, Huckabee must not be allowed to win FL or the RNC king makers are in serious trouble. The fact they need Huckabee to stop McCain in SC is a sign their plan for Romney is in trouble, and that is good for democracy and the GOP.
Dan said: "Actually ex-preacher McCain doesn't
have a commanding lead in SC. A fox
poll today had Huckabee at 27%.
McCain at 23% and Romney at 17%. The
other polls all have Huckabee increasing
and the others declining. No McCain is
not the "front runner"."
I'm searching for the Fox poll you refer to and can't find it. The latest poll on the Fox News website is one taken on Jan. 9, the day after New Hampshire, and released on Jan. 10. It says: "A new FOX News South Carolina Republican presidential primary poll shows McCain is now the front-runner with 25 percent, followed by Iowa caucus winner Huckabee at 18 percent and Romney at 17 percent."
Here are three other post-NH polls from South Carolina
PPP Jan 12: McCain 28, Huckabee 21, Romney 17, Thompson 14
Rasmussen Jan. 13: McCain 28, Huckabee 19, Romney 17, Thompson 16
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Jan 15: McCain 29, Huckabee 23, Romney 13, Thompson 12
(Paul and Giuliani each get 5 or 6% in each poll)
McCain is the frontrunner.
Good grief! It's getting pretty hard to take you seriously.
You were a blogger for Fred. Now he is "smart enough to know that he was a lackluster Senator who has no ability to lead a Boy Scout troop much less a nation."
Poor Huckabee! Other republicans are attacking him--like you are attacking his opponents. I love the division among you republicans; maybe your despair will keep you home in November. Honestly, that is where your nation needs you to be.
"Is That A Dark Cloud Forming? -- I know its early in the race and I don’t want to be pessimistic but I have to ask: Doesn't it look like we're going to have a Democrat in the White House next year?"
That dark cloud, eight long years' worth, is about to pass over. The silver lining, I hope, will become visible before year's end.
Cyndy Salzmann writes:
"I think you're right... and it makes me very sad.
With the GOP so fractured, we are going to have a Democrat in the White House. [...] Unfortunately, our children will pay the price."
So far, nearly four thousand pairs of American parents have seen their children pay the price in Iraq. Many, many, Iraqi parents have seen the same, but who's counting? A generation may pass before our nation once again has a Supreme Court that reflects its values. Who knows how long it will take our nation to recover its standing in the world? Meanwhile, evangelicals are wringing their hands about embryos, gay marriage, and nativity scenes.
It doesn't just look like there's going to be "a Democrat" in the White House next year; it looks like Hillary Clinton will be in the White House next year. It's a prospect I don't much look forward to, and I'm a Democrat!
But for conservative/Republican types, it's not as bad as you might think. Of the three (two, really) viable Democratic contenders, she's the least liberal on most issues. And she has a history of running to the right.
So if you're going to get "stuck with" a Democrat, wouldn't you rather have her than Obama?
Anyway, say what you will about tax-and-spend Democrats, but I'll take them over borrow-and-spend Republicans in a heartbeat.
Its nice to be noticed. Seems some of my comments have elicited more than a few responses.
With regards to Huckabee supporters sounding like Daily Kos ... Its not a conspiracy. We know that. The attempt to characterize our concerns as being conspiracy minded is a straw man argument against the real issue of the marginalization.. or attempted marginalization of the religious right. You say that my metaphor of treating us as the crazy grandma in the cellar is fallacious ... we have been used to elect pro life republicans for over 30 years. But yet here we are 30 freaking years later and its legal to kill your child. Even.. even get this crapola.. you can partially deliver the baby then stick scissors in the back of their head and suck their brains out.. all this .. all this.. under the aegis of the "Reagan coalition" yea.. well Ill tell you what Romneyacs and Fred fanatics and gullible Giulianites .. Rush and Hannity.... I could give a flying rats ass whether or not you think Im tearing apart the "Reagan Coalition" I think it needs to be torn apart if we have so miserably failed the most vulnerable of our own. Dont even get me started about Terri Schiavo... The "republican congress.. senate... and White House" vacillated and wrung their hands and proved to be miserably impotent in the face of her sociapathic determined husband. I think its time the Christian Right grabbed the handle bars and steered this bike back down the right path.
Go, Bill, go! Grab those handlebars! We'll delay the inauguration long enough for the GOP to extract the bike from the bush.
Let me see if I've got this straight...
The Radio establishment is torpedoing Huckabee's campaign. Yet the implied support they (Rush, Hannity) are giving to Thompson seem to be giving him no traction in the polls. So they are a factor...but they aren't?
Sorry. Not buying it.
I have to say, after reading much of Joe's defenses of Huckabee and reading Huckabee's defenses of Huckabee and watching him in the debates, ive finally figured out his campaign slogan;
"I'm a victim"
Huckabee and some of his more vocal supporters aren't ready for the Presidency. When you understand that talking about someone's record and the differences we all have with that record aren't "Attacks" then you're ready. When you center your campaign on being an evangelical preacher and say things like, "Aren't they the guys who believe Satan is the brother of Jesus?" and then complain about being asked about your faith, it comes off as whining.
But mostly, when you disregard your fellow evangelicals opinions on Huckabee as lies and stoop to spreading gossip to further the goals of your candidate (What ever happened to Jan 9th anyway?), it becomes intolerable.
Matt:
I dont think its a conspiracy, just a marginalization of the religious right. Most of the talking heads seem to be behind Romney anyway.
To say they have no effect is inaccurate, how in the world did the Dubai Port deal get torpedoed? Or how did the Harriet Myers Supreme Court appointment get tanked? Or how did amnesty get booted this last go around? It was talk radio and the alternative media that led the charge.
Show me (a little of my Missouri heritage showing there) how they are lifting Fred over Romney, I would love to see that example.
Bill Henry,
I don't think either Rush or Hannity are specifically endorsing any candidate. But articles like this certainly demonstrate some bias:
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_011108/content/01125111.guest.html
The line under Thompson's picture linking to the article said "It looks like we have a conservative in the race, folks."
As for Hannity, sorry I can't be as specific. I've just gotten that "Fred-friendly" feeling from listening to his show and all the times he's had Fred on the air. I could be wrong.
From a born-again Christian who has long (and faithfully) attended Baptist churches, and a grassroots Republican leader in Colorado.:
If Huckabee could defend his record rather than deflect questions about it...
If Huckabee could move beyond push-polling and whisper campaigns against his opponents...
If Huckabee could broaden his appeal beyond evangelical identity politics...
If Huckabee could stop playing the passive-aggressive victim whenever anyone asks questions about his record...
If Huckabee didn't look and act like Bill Clinton...
If Huckabee could make up his mind whether he is for or against the nanny state...
If Huckabee could make up his mind about school choice...
If Huckabee had entertained a serious thought about American foreign policy...
Then I could really consider supporting him.
BTW, I'm really disappointed to read the highly snarky comments Joe Carter has written here about Fred Thompson and others - I used to think so highly of your writing and respected the level of your argument. Please persuade me I'm wrong, but I can't help thinking the Huckabee campaign tactics have rubbed off on you.
And now conspiracy-mongering ... the aw shucks charm and slick answers will carry Huckabee only so far, and hopefully doesn't bring the GOP crashing down with him.
If you're going to claim to be a conservative, let's judge our candidates by their records and the likely outcomes of their proposals first, not how well they charm and sweet-talk nor how noble their intentions may be.
Sorry, Joe, but I call 'em like I see 'em. Somebody is going to have to convince me otherwise.
No, I'm just mocking Huckabee.
He's simply a whiner in my book, and if he can't stand the heat in the primaries, you know al Qaeda is licking their chops.
Ben is right, Huckabee is a push-polling, plagiarizing, whining huckster (OK, I added some of that myself).
I'm sorry if I sound like you all do when you make snarky comments toward Romney or Thompson.
Politics is a contact sport.
I simply think we need a pro, not an amateur in the White House in 2009.
I too am a Christian, and I love Joe's blog, and will continue to read the evangelical outpost for as long as Joe keeps writing.
zmrzlina:
Instead of disagreeing, his opponents resort to character assassination and name calling.
Heck, that's the GOP way. They've been doing it to Democrats for years. You knew it was only a matter of time before they started doing it to each other... The problem is, it's effective, and as long as it keeps working, they'll keep doing it.
Michele ...if you were a little older you might have more sympathy for someone like Fred who has to write down his points to make sure he doesn't forget them.
Come on, you aren't really going to play the age card are you? ; )
Thompson is only 65. By comparison, Romney is almost 61, McCain is 71, and Ron Paul is 72. I didn't notice them having to constantly read off their notes. It wasn't that he was old and forgetful, it was that he was ill-prepared.
BTW, I think that if your candidate had governed and ran in accordance with
the principles laid out in his plan, then he might have gotten more of the
conservative vote and he wouldn't be perceived as a Republican John
Edwards.
I would be interested in hearing where he strayed from that plan. While the necessities of federalism may have caused him to make decision at the state level that he wouldn’t as President. But I don’t think he governed differently from what is in his plan.
Sierra Ben is right, Huckabee is a push-polling, plagiarizing, whining huckster (OK, I added some of that myself).
Where do you get that he has (a) push-polled anyone or (b) plagiarized?
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