Rudy or the Minimax:
Game Theory, Giuliani, and the GOP Nomination

At a meeting of the Council for National Policy, several leaders of the "religious right" threatened to abandon the GOP in favor of a third party if Rudy Giuliani is the nominee. While I am closely associated with many of these groups I was dismayed by the news and considered it a tactical mistake. I'm in agreement with James Dobson who, according to the Washington Post, "spoke out against the idea of a third party even if 'both Democratic and Republican nominees are known to be entirely unsupportive of the sanctity of human life, the institution of marriage and other aspects of the pro-moral agenda.'"

My fellow Christian conservatives are being a bit hasty for the the assumption that Giuliani will be the nominee is premature at best. I'm fairly confident that Republicans will come to their senses in time to choose a candidate that will not destroy the party. Eventually primary voters will realize that the reason the liberals in New York City elected the pro-choice, anti-gun, cross-dressing philanderer is because he was one of them -- not one of us.

But while I'm cautiously optimistic that Rudy will flame out, I am distressed by the overreaction to this news item. Some of my fellow Republican bloggers--many of whom are even conservatives--leaped to the absurdly illogical claim that if social conservatives didn’t support Rudy, we'd be responsible for Hillary being elected.

Think about that one for a second.

Social conservatives do not want Hillary to be President, which is why they will not vote for her in the Democratic primaries. Social conservatives also do not want Rudy to be President, which is why we will not vote for him in Republican primaries. If these two candidates are on the ballot it will not be because of any positive steps taken on the part of social conservatives. Yet, according to the logic of my fellow Republicans, by not voting for a man who we don't want to be President we are ensuring the election of a woman that we do not want to be President.

I assume that these bloggers know how the primary process works in America. If so they should be aware of the chain of responsibility. Primary voters who choose Hillary as the Democratic candidate are the primary group responsible if she gets elected. Without them there isn't even the possibility that she can become President. Likewise, assuming that she can win the Electoral College, those who vote for her in the general election will be the ones who deserve the blame (or credit).

Unless social conservatives vote for Hillary in either the primaries or the general election, we are in no way to blame for her moving back into the White House. That blame will go to our friends and neighbors. The same goes for the nomination of Rudy.

But what if the reason that Hillary wins is, as some want to claim, because social conservatives did not choose the lesser of two evils and vote for Rudy? Again, we social conservatives are not to blame at all. We are the ones who will have made the rational choice during the primaries while the Giuliani supporters made an irrational choice.

To illustrate what I mean, let's use the tools of game theory.

Imagine that you have three groups of voters. Group A likes Hillary and opposes all Republican nominees; Group B prefers Giuliani, but would choose another nominee over Hillary; Group C prefers anyone other than Giuliani and Hillary. The choices could be put on matrix like this:

 Hillary (1)  Giuliani (2)  Anyone Else (3)
 Hillary (A)        3         0            0
 Giuliani (B)       -1         3            2
 Anyone Else (C)       -1         0            3

Group A would be happy with A1, and unhappy with either A2 or A3. Similarly, Group B would be unhappiest with B1, happy with B2, and satisfied with B3. Group C would be unhappy with C1, dissatisfied with C2, and happy with C3.

Now let's examine what rational choices each group of voters should make in a Republican primary.

Since the GOP is never going to nominate Hillary, the most rational choice for Group A would be to skip the Republican primary altogether and vote in the Democratic primaries. The most rational choice for Group C would be C3--anyone other than Giuliani. So what should Group B choose? Even though their first preference is B2, they have to consider how Group C will vote.

For Group B, choice B3 is what game theorists call the minimax condition, the choice which minimizes the maximum possible loss. They don't get Giuliani but they don’t get Hillary either. (That same outcome, by the way, is the optimum choice for Group C.)

Even if they were unable to communicate with Group C, the most rational choice for Group B would be to choose the minimax. But they have even more incentive because social conservatives (Group C) have communicated to Giuliani supporters (Group B) that they will not accept option C2. All things being equal, it would therefore be irrational for primary voters to choose Giuliani.

But embedded in the calculus is the additional concept of "electability." The assumption is that Rudy is more electable than any of the other candidates currently running for the Republican nomination. (Evidence for this claim is sorely lacking. In fact, I contend that Giuliani could not beat Hillary for a Senate seat, much less have a shot at besting her in a national contest.)

There are two assumptions buried in this idea of "electability." The first is that he is electable because we social conservative will support him despite the fact that many of his positions and values are antithetical to our own. We will vote for him, they believe, because the alternative is even worse.

The second, related assumption is that Rudy is more palatable to the so-called independent swing voters than other candidates. They are also saying that the preferences of these independent voters are worth more consideration than those of social conservatives. We longtime Republican supporters are expected to set aside our moral qualms about the candidate simply because he appeals to a fickle group of swingers who may be able to affect the election.

In essence, we are being told to toss aside our principles and kowtow to the demands of a group of Republicans who have sold out conservative values for a pottage of pragmatism.

If that is what the GOP has become, then count me out. If Rudy is the nominee, then I and many other social conservatives will be staying home on Election Day. I'm telling you this now so that you can factor in this information when you are in the voting booth during the primaries. The time to choose the lesser of two evils comes during the primaries, not in the general election. If you think you can elect the Mayor without our help, then go with your first choice. But if you gamble and fail, you will be to blame. We offered you the minimax -- and you chose Hillary.

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108 Comments

perrault writes:

Why This Christian Will Never Vote For Giuliani at http://larryperrault.blogspot.com

Boonton writes:

But what if the reason that Hillary wins is, as some want to claim, because social conservatives did not choose the lesser of two evils and vote for Rudy? Again, we social conservatives are not to blame at all. We are the ones who will have made the rational choice during the primaries while the Giuliani supporters made an irrational choice.

And why would he be the lesser of two evils? You stated that your objection to Rudy was:

"pro-choice, anti-gun, cross-dressing philanderer "

Well, Hillary as far was we know is not a philanderer nor does she engage in cross-dressing (please no jokes from the peanut gallery saying "wait, she sometimes wears dresses!"). She doesn't even appear to be as anti-gun as Rudy (although be careful, GOP candidates seem to have acquired rapid 'evolution' in their views.) Let's face it, all you really mean by 'social conservative' is 'cheerleader for the Republican Party'.

[BTW, are you really serious about the cross-dressing? He did it as part of a skit at a comedy show. Is Bob Hope on your list of evil Americans who have degraded our culture?]

Your game theory evaluation uses a 'single turn' model. In other words, it assumes the only thing that matters is this election and that's it. But presumably 'social conservatives' are in it for the long haul. They would like the Republican Party to nominate social conservatives all the time, not just this upcoming election.

Evaluate the game then? If Rudy is nominated and they vote for him and he wins they will have sent a message that the GOP can feel safe ignoring them. A limited short term win (no Hillary) is brought at the cost of losing a long term goal (influencing the Republican Party).

On the other hand if they withhold their support and Rudy looses they may take some rhetorical blame but what will the GOP do? If they cannot replace the loss Christianist voters with Democratic voters (say by making inroads among Hispanics) they have no choice but to make sure the next guy is more acceptable to them in the next round. Even if they withhold their support and Rudy wins they still make it more difficult and more expensive for him to have won. Assuming he wants to win re-election and he isn't being worshiped as the greatest President ever he will still want to add social conservatives to the ranks of his voters.

In the end I think your argument reveals the 'true agenda' here. Some social conservatives really believe what they are saying and others really believe in the GOP first and everything else second. Perhaps we shall call your group "Yellow Dog Republicans"?

Lowell Browning writes:

As if Bush's overdue stay in Iraq isn't bad enough, now the republican party is doing more damage with their internal combustion.Look for a Hill-Obama ticket next year.

;) writes:

If all else fails, write in Ron Paul.

Justin Thibault writes:

The Anchoress did a great piece on this.

Theory aside, the reality is that we are in a two-party system the first party to disintegrate loses. So, you tell me who do you want picking your Supreme Court nominees - Giuliani or Clinton?

Jeff writes:

The Christian right should have abandoned the GOP a long time ago. As Chuck Baldwin has said for a long time now we should support the Constitution Party.

Boonton writes:

Theory aside, the reality is that we are in a two-party system the first party to disintegrate loses. So, you tell me who do you want picking your Supreme Court nominees - Giuliani or Clinton?

The intellectual bankruptcy of the right seems to extend to the judicial branch as well. Scalia, Thomas etc. seem content to ditch principles when it suits their ideology. While you probably wouldn't trust my judgement I would say it probably matters less than you think. Rudy would be under intense pressure to appoint judges that were not anti-Roe ideologes. On other issues you may want to see some liberal balance in the court, especially since the right wing of the court seems to be beholden to big gov't in many areas like eminent domain, state rights (medical maj.) and other issues.

Boonton writes:

Anyway the 'game theory' here hinges on the question of whether you think the world will end with the next election or if you're playing this game for the long run. If you care about the long run then not only does the next election matter but all the ones after that matter too.

Many on the right, though, seem to suffer from Hillary Derangement Syndrom, the irrational belief that Clinton will somehow end the world hence any price to keep her from being elected is worth paying. Taking a step back, though, try to pretend this isn't the case. Try to take a more reality based perspective that Hillary administration would probably look like Clinton's administration....generally moderate policies and really nothing too dramatic except manufactured drama (also probably no Monica type scandals).

Now, stay with me, look at your options. A Rudy win would mean being shut out for 8 years since it would probably be very hard to mount a social conservative challenge to Rudy after his first term unless he really, really screws things up. (Reference Pat Buchannan's failed challenge of Bush I). Let's also face facts, the GOP needs a good cleaning out. Whatever you want to say I don't think any of you honestly feel 8 years of Bush has been mentally healthy for what was an intellectually vigerous movement. You've ditched principles overboard and time and time again had to excuse or defend cronyism, corruption and just rank dishonesty. A day of reckoning is coming, I think you all know that. Do you think it's going to be any prettier after extending this fiasco another 4 years under Rudy? It isn't, it's going to be a lot worse.

Joe's wrong, if Rudy is the nominee there is a very good arguement for social conservatives to bolt. That is if you think social conservatism should come before the Republican Party rather than the other way around.

Matt writes:

Don't stay home on election day if Rudy wins the primary for two reasons:

1. Last election, I saw five candidates on the ballot for president. I realize that three of them had no chance, but I think voting for them makes a difference anyway. If people see that Nader + Gore > Bush, but Bush wins or that (hypothetically) Rudy + Paul/Badnarik > Hillary, but Hillary wins, they might rethink pursuing undecideds while insulting their base.

2. On election day, there will probably be quite a few important races. I have one senator that sorely needs replacing, but that doesn't happen from home, right?

Boonton,
The intellectual bankruptcy of the right seems to extend to the judicial branch as well. Scalia, Thomas etc. seem content to ditch principles when it suits their ideology.

Really? Do you mean Kelo? Oh, wait -- that was the intellectual (and unConstitutional) bankruptcy of the Left.

http://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/04-108.ZS.html
Stevens, J., delivered the opinion of the Court, in which Kennedy, Souter, Ginsburg, and Breyer, JJ., joined. Kennedy, J., filed a concurring opinion. O’Connor, J., filed a dissenting opinion, in which Rehnquist, C. J., and Scalia and Thomas, JJ., joined. Thomas, J., filed a dissenting opinion.

Prediction: If a non-pro-life (and that's most certainly the primary uniting issue among social conservatives) candidate wins the Republican nomination, then the Pro Life community will take the incremental approach. It's not so b&w and hopeless as so many might indicate. It's not a defeat -- it's a time for regrouping.

Collin
http://evangelicalperspective.blogspot.com/

Robert Duquette writes:

Boonton makes a good point regarding the time frame for playing the game. Christian conservatives have helped the Republican candidate win five of the last eight presidential elections, and not counting the partial birth abortion ban those five presidential terms have yielded practically nothing for the pro-life cause. What makes them think that the next election will be decisive for the cause?

There's a lot more at stake in the next election cycle than the fate of Roe v Wade. If the SC's are going to be a one issue constituency, then they will only end up marginalizing themselves in the long run. I don't care for Rudy for all the issues, but from a foreign policy & national defense standpoint he's my favorite.

Joe Carter writes:

Matt On election day, there will probably be quite a few important races.

Okay, you got me there. I wouldn't really stay home since the other races are truly important.

Robert Rudy for all the issues, but from a foreign policy & national defense standpoint he's my favorite.

I've never understood this position. Rudy has no foreign policy or national defense experience. His positions are also indistinguishable from Thompson and McCain. In fact, why wouldn't you prefer McCain since he is both more knowledgeable and experienced on these issues?

Robert,
Boonton makes a good point regarding the time frame for playing the game. Christian conservatives have helped the Republican candidate win five of the last eight presidential elections, and not counting the partial birth abortion ban those five presidential terms have yielded practically nothing for the pro-life cause. What makes them think that the next election will be decisive for the cause?

Why? Because today it's also incremental. Very little ever happens quickly.

Pragmatist writes:

I know we are in serious danger when idiots (useful idiots?) such as these spout such nonsense. Hillary will win if we splinter the conservative vote. She will really fix your little red wagon on the SCOTUS with her liberal appointments. This really makes me sick! Rudi will appoint strict constructionists. This is really all of the social power the POTUS can wield. The sooner you understand this, the better!

pcon-T writes:

Rudy Giuliani is a social moderate, NOT a liberal, on the popular issues where the media loves to tar him with that dirty "L" word. And he's a Reagan conservative on basically everything else.

Here is where Rudy stands on:

ABORTION:
Yes, he's pro choice, but he only supports late term abortion if it's shown to be needed to protect the life of the mother, on a case by case basis. Otherwise he feels it would be unethical and should be illegal. A liberal would support late term abortion to also protect the "health of the mother", which can mean almost anything, including a psychologist's claim that the woman would be emotionally distraught if she had the child. Giuliani also supported the Supreme Court's recent decision to uphold the partial birth abortion ban. Unlike liberals, he also supports parental or other adult family member notification laws for underage girls who want to have an abortion. All this makes him a moderate on the subject, not a liberal.

SAME SEX MARRIAGE:
Giuliani has consistently stated that marriage must remain between a man and a woman, in order to preserve it as the institution deemed best for the raising of children, our nation's most precious resource. He only supports same sex domestic partnerships, which are simply legal contracts between any two people, and should be Constitutionally allowed for anyone. By the way, President Bush himself openly supported same sex civil unions during the 2004 election campaign. Civil unions and domestic partnerships are not "marriage by another name", as some say. On this issue Giuliani also holds a moderate position, not a liberal one.

GUN CONTROL:
As someone who consistently calls himself a strict constructionist, Giuliani supports the 2nd Amendment because it's unequivocally right there in the Constitution. But he knows that states and localities have limited rights to set and enforce their own laws. As he says, what works in New York won't necessarily work in Alabama or Mississippi. Here he's honestly demonstrating his commitment to federalism, or states' rights, which is a core of conservatism. But don't expect NYC type of gun laws on a federal level if he's President, because he knows that could never be imposed.

ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION:
Few of the presidential candidates came out harder against the recent failed Bush/Kennedy illegal immigration bill in the Senate, and Giuliani had a clear explanation of why he felt the bill was a bad idea. He's constantly saying we need a strong physical wall and technological wall at the border, harsh penalties on employers who knowingly or repeatedly hire illegals, a tamper proof ID card for employers, and that the recent bill was obviously amnesty. And he has come out strongly with a detailed plan of how he would enforce the border, using a version of the extremely successful program he used to reduce crime in New York City.

JUDGES:
As a former U.S. Attorney, he's consistently clear about the Constitution's demand that judges only interpret the law instead of making it up. Making law is only for the legislative and executive branches, and when unelected and unaccountable judges do this, they upset our government's separation of powers. And truthfully, nominating judges is one of the few areas where a president can actually make a difference with many of these hot button social issues.

HEALTHCARE:
Few candidates of either party have laid out as comprehensive a plan as Giuliani's to make healthcare more affordable to more people with more choices and flexibility, and it uses the power of the free market instead of non-competitive socialized medicine. His plan not only makes sense, the fact that he even developed one early in the campaign season shows that he is not afraid to tackle these controversial issues head on.

It's easy to be a conservative in a red state or town, but Giuliani cleaned up NYC with conservative principles against one of the most bogged down leftist city councils this side of Havana. Also, who can forget his famous battles against the so-called civil rights groups over federal funding of obscene art and the porn shops in Times Square, as well as his almost daily confrontations with virulently hostile reporters at his press conferences?

How many people knew where Rudy Giuliani stands on all these positions? The fact is he is moderate to conservative on the "hot button" social issues, NOT a liberal. And based on what he's shown so far, he's a real Reagan conservative on foreign policy/the War on Terror, judges, taxes, the economy, and illegal immigration. THESE are the important issues of our time, and where we most desperately need real, principled leadership. All of this, combined with his electability in a general election, make Rudy Giuliani the Republican we need to nominate for 2008.

pcon-T writes:

Joe Carter, above, writes:

[why wouldn't you prefer McCain since he is both more knowledgeable and experienced on these (foreign policy or national defense) issues?]

Here's why, Joe. Because Giuliani is the only candidate, in either party, with a successful track record as an effective chief executive, which is exactly the job of the President. McCain, as experienced as he is, has a career as a lawmaker, not a delegator. There is a very big difference.

pcon-T writes:

Eric Johnston, a passionate pro-lifer on the abortion issue recently wrote this terrific article (in the NY Times, believe it or not!).

His thesis: BECAUSE Giuliani is not a religious conservative (just a law & order, national security, fiscal, and judicial conservative), he can very likely shake up the entire abortion debate on a national level as our next president, in a way that would help win the issue for conservatives.

You see, right now, most Americans think conservatives oppose abortion ONLY because of religious or strict social doctrine. Most people don't understand how conservatives passionately oppose Roe vs. Wade because it took the power to decide the issue out of the hands of the people and their representatives, and into the hands of unaccountable judicial tyrants on the Supreme Court, who invented a "privacy right" that doesn't exist in the Constitution. They'd be shocked to learn that most conservatives, even strict social conservatives, would accept legalized abortion if it were decided by the people or their representatives, although one certainly reserves the right to try and change hearts and minds at the grassroots level. That is of course, what America is all about.

Giuliani can wake Americans up to this fact, because Americans wouldn't chalk up his opposition to simple religious doctrine. And he WOULD be a force against unfettered abortion, and abortion on demand. Besides a commitment to nominate the types of judges who'd never decide Roe in the first place, he opposes late term abortion, unless medically necessary for the life of the mother, and supports parental notification laws for minors wanting an abortion.

How does that stack up to Saint Hillary and the rest of the Democratic Party circus? Giuliani would make great strides toward promoting the pro life cause, even if he's not an outspoken soldier in that war.

Link to the article: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/14/opinion/14johnston.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

ex-preacher writes:

Brilliant article, Joe! If Rudy and Hillary end up being the nominees, please re-run this article a year from now. I hope it gets especially wide readership among evangelicals in Florida and Ohio.

A couple of statistics from people who know him best gives the sharpest commentary on Rudy.

First, in a poll of New Yorkers, they preferred Mike Bloomburg as a possible president over Rudy Giuliani by 46 to 29%.

Second, in every poll I've seen of New Yorkers, Clinton trounces Giuliani in a head-to-head match.

Jeff writes:

pcon-T wrote: "Giuliani is the only candidate, in either party, with a successful track record as an effective chief executive, which is exactly the job of the President."

Huh? You are obviously forgetting Mitt Romney, who has by far the most impressive record as a chief executive. He also has a substantially more conservative record than Rudy.

pcon-T writes:

Jeff writes:

"Mitt Romney...has by far the most impressive record as a chief executive. He also has a substantially more conservative record than Rudy."

I was thinking of Mitt when I wrote that Rudy has the best track record as a chief executive, Jeff. I like Mitt a lot, and would support him if he's our nominee; he was a brilliant CEO in the business world, turned around the Salt Lake City Olympics, and was an effective Massachusetts governor. Plus, he's a terrific family man.

But Rudy's record as NYC mayor is nothing short of revolutionary, long before 9/11, and I'm really not exaggerating. NYC was the "ungovernable city", and it was decimated in terms of rampant crime, decayed social order, an anti-business, pro-welfare dependency climate, and out of control taxes and bloated, inefficient government bureaucracy. In a few short years the Giuliani Administration turned all this around in every area, creating a model for politicians the world over. And most importantly for us conservatives: he did it all with Reagan conservative principles, against one of the most bogged down leftist city councils and hostile media environments in the nation, maybe in the world. He held his ground over and over again, no matter how much they called him a fascist and a Nazi.

Romney, with all due respect, didn't go through all this, not to this degree. NO ONE running for President right now, in either party, has this experience and track record. Giuliani was under the spotlight on the national stage long before 9/11, and he was a resounding success, as a true conservative. THAT'S what I want in my next President.

This article will say it all much better than I can, with lots of statistics that should blow your mind:

Yes, Rudy Giuliani Is a Conservative
By Steven Malanga
http://www.city-journal.org/html/17_1_rudy_giuliani.html

jd writes:

Joe:

What do you think of this advice?

ADVICE FOR REPUBLICANS, from Tony Blankley: "Every faction within the GOP coalition should agree immediately to make no further demands of their party. Just as the liberals did in 1991 and 1992, the conservatives of 2007 and 2008 simply should let their strongest candidate campaign in a way most likely to gain victory. Every conservative principle thereby would be safer than if heavy demands yield a Hillary presidency."

Joe Carter writes:

JD What do you think of this advice?

I think its weak advice considering how poorly Rudy polls against Hillary. (See the latest here).

If he is polling this badly now, what happens when people realize start to discover his positions on the issues of abortion and guns? Hopefully Republicans will wake up to the fact that Rudy can't beat Hillary before its too late.

Ken writes:

Problem is, Romney is actually the most in-line with social conservatives in general, but his being Mormon means the social conservatives, i.e. Born-Again Christian Base, will automatically reject him, both in the Primary and in the General. Even if they don't actively vote for Hillary, they'll passively do so by staying home and feeling righteous about it. (And besides, Christ will Return and Rapture them before anything happens to them personally -- won't He?)

A couple months ago, Hugh Hewitt did a piece on Christianity Today's website plugging Romney as being the candidate most in touch with the Christian voting base. The comment threads on that piece were overwhelmingly Denunciations of Mormon False Doctrine (SCRIPTURE! SCRIPTURE! SCRIPTURE!). Given this, Romney, best candidate for the social conservatives, doesn't stand a chance with them.

They will make their bed, and all of us will have to lie in it.

Ken writes:

Ah, Ron Paul. The Losertarians raise their head again.

I've had Libertarianism inflicted on me, i.e. preached at me over and over, and Losertarians are no different than the Daily Kos Nutroot tribe. True Believers (TM), both of them.

Every national election, the Losertarians maybe get a fraction of a percent, but crow about how a Libertarian was elected assistant-dogcatcher in some nameless village in the Midwest, PROVING THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE GREAT LIBERTARIAN JUGGERNAUT THAT WILL DOMINATE THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN POLITICS (TM)!

Matthew Goggins writes:

Boonton,

I think your analysis of whether or not social conservatives should bolt from a Giuliani candicacy makes sense.

However, one aspect that both you and Joe seem to be overlooking is that a mutiny by evangelical-conservative types (such as James Dobson) could actually give Giuliani a big boost in the general election. It could even spell the difference between slaying the Hilda-beast and losing to her.

It's not like Giuliani has any chance of carrying New York State against Hillary, but it would make a difference in a lot of swing states.


As for "Hillary Derangement Syndrome", I don't hate Senator Clinton, or underestimate her, I scorn her and disdain her character.

I don't have an irrational belief that Hillary will bring the end days upon us. I have a very rational belief that whoever is president will have vast powers to promote good or not-good, and that includes someone I support and admire such as Senator Thompson. So I will do everything in my own very limited power to see that the presidency is awarded to someone of good character instead of someone who represents the worst failings of the political class.

Senator Thompson talks about unfunded entitlement spending, global security, and bringing people together through leadership. Senator Clinton talks about baby bonds and, through the website Media Matters which she supports, how Rush Limbaugh is anti-soldier. I'm glad you're able to appreciate her good points, though -- maybe you can tell us all what you like about President Bush while you're at it.

Boonton writes:

Ahhhh yes, Senator Thompson is going to "bring us together through leadership". I think you may want to make sure you aren't suffering from a host of derangement syndroms.

Why is it important that Limbaugh is called out on being anti-solder (which he is)? A baby bond seems like a good idea (I suppose the devil is always in the details but on the surface I don't see anything obviously wrong with it). When you write about the next president having the power to do good or not-good I thought you actually cared about important issues. In other words, look at what you've become after so many years of Bush corruption. Offending a has-been drug addict radio dj is actually an important issue to you. Why?

Boonton writes:

However, one aspect that both you and Joe seem to be overlooking is that a mutiny by evangelical-conservative types (such as James Dobson) could actually give Giuliani a big boost in the general election. It could even spell the difference between slaying the Hilda-beast and losing to her.

Here's the game theory question, does the Christian right matter or not? If they don't then the GOP can win or lose without their aid. In that case the optimal strategy would seem to be "sit down and shut up". Don't make waves for the party and hope that you'll get some bones as a reward. In the meantime work on building your numbers and influence.

If the right does matter, though, then a mutiny would signal the party "don't mess with us or we alone will cost you elections". Not only would you not be deranged over Hillary winning but you'd need her to win. If the right revolted and Giuliani won the general election anyway you'd basically have demonstrated that you don't matter. Expect to be ignored for a long time afterwards.

So it's a bit of a gamble. If you mutiny you're gambling that you're important enough to matter. Hope that if your bluff is called you really are. Then again, no guts no glory. Remember the right actually accepted a loss in 1976 because they wanted the party purged of its losers. What better way than letting them...well...lose.

Now if you don't take the gamble you don't get to win big. That's just how life works. Perhaps you'll win and like I said if you suffer from HDS that might be all that matters to you....just like a drug addict cares only about that next bag and not the job, house and savings account he is giving up for it. I think a win would be very counterproductive not only for the GOP but for the US. It would basically say there's no punishment for producing crap and let's face it, that's what the GOP has been making for the last twenty years or so. Can you get away with it? Perhaps, Detroit did with cars for a long time but in the long run it just made the eventual reckoning all the worst.

jd writes:

Why is it important that Limbaugh is called out on being anti-solder (which he is)?

Boonton:

You are poison ivy. The more we scratch, the worse you get.

Except that you infest areas that poison ivy doesn't usually reach.

Your intellectual dishonesty and bankruptcy is truly maddening, especially in someone who seems to have access to so many relevant "facts."

Why do you spend so much time here? Why do you perpetually write to people for whom you have such disdain? I say disdain because your only purpose seems to be to make Christian conservatives angry. You can't possibly believe the crap you shovel here. Your modus operandi is to say up when we say down and vice versa. You disagree with the most obvious things. When Jefferson wrote: "We hold these truths to be self-evident", I hear Boonton yelling from the back of the room: "Err, Hmmm, Let's see, actually, no."

I can hardly stand to read one of your posts all the way through for fear that I might start nodding my head (in agreement or sleep). Really. Do you ever work? I know this is Joe's business. He's a paid writer. But I'm pretty sure that you have written more on this blog than he has. What kind of a person has time to write so many words disagreeing with people for whom he has so little respect that he won't ever admit they are right about anything.

I think you're kind of a strange duck.

You are probably wondering why the rant based on a comment about Rush. I just gave all the reasons above. The notion that Rush is anti-soldier is so stupid and so obviously stupid that it is not worth mentioning. But every once in awhile you got to scratch, no matter what kind of boil or pus or critter comes crawling to the surface. The pitiful thing is that you can and will probably write many seemingly well-reasoned words to explain why the obvious isn't so: that Rush IS anti-soldier. Absolutely incredible.

May the force be with you.

jd writes:

Joe:

Did you answer my question about Tony Blankley's advice? I don't think Blankley is pushing for Guiliani, is he? I think he's only pushing for Guiliani if he thinks Rudy can win. Isn't he simply urging us to vote for the lesser of two evils? I don't know if Guiliani can win, but he has to be better than she who must not be named. He's pleading with the Christian right to not stay home if it's a choice between Clinton and anyone else.

Boonton writes:

Your intellectual dishonesty and bankruptcy is truly maddening, especially in someone who seems to have access to so many relevant "facts."

Yawn, I do agree you are probably quite madd but it isn't I that maddened you.

What kind of a person has time to write so many words disagreeing with people for whom he has so little respect that he won't ever admit they are right about anything.

I have admitted I was wrong when it was demonstrated. If I missed any such points please feel free to point them out. As for why I bother here, see my blog entry on being a pin in a bubble factory. You guys would be a lot worse without my efforts, for this I don't even ask for money from you!

just gave all the reasons above. The notion that Rush is anti-soldier is so stupid and so obviously stupid that it is not worth mentioning.

John Kerry never said soldiers who supported the Vietnam or Iraq wars were 'phoney soldiers'. Limbaugh did. Notice you don't actually say Limbaugh didn't say it or didn't mean it. No, you assert that the idea that the sacred Limbaugh could ever assert something wrong is..well just unimaginable. For someone who calls himself a Christian you seem to worship quite a few sacred cows.

Matthew Goggins writes:

Boonton,

Ahhhh yes, Senator Thompson is going to "bring us together through leadership". I think you may want to make sure you aren't suffering from a host of derangement syndroms.

I understand your skepticism, and even share it up to a point. But if Senator Thompson can't unify us, then it is probably true that nobody else who is running can.


Why is it important that Limbaugh is called out on being anti-solder ...

My point was that Rush is Hillary's issue, not mine. At best, Hillary is using Rush as a distraction from more important issues. At worst, she really does think Rush is anti-soldier and deserves flack from the highest levels of the government.

Wherever the truth lies, it paints Hillary as a cynical hack.

... (which he is)?

Everyone is entitled to his opinion. Since you are the one making the accusation, though, I would ask you to provide some evidence. What exactly did Rush say, and how was it anti-soldier?


A baby bond seems like a good idea (I suppose the devil is always in the details but on the surface I don't see anything obviously wrong with it).

Like I said, you are entirely entitled to your opinion.

Here's a "surface" objection for you to mull over, though, if you are interested: every government benefit is paid for by tax revenue; all tax revenue is money taken involuntarily by the government from private citizens; there is, therefore, a strong presumption against every goverment benefit, in the sense that one shouldn't take other people's money unless there is a crying need to do so and unless the government is actually the best agent to address that need.


When you write about the next president having the power to do good or not-good I thought you actually cared about important issues.

You are being tendentious here, and I'm not the one who comes off the worse for it.


In other words, look at what you've become after so many years of Bush corruption.

President Bush hasn't been corrupt, and Democrats have given the Republicans a good, stiff run for the title of most corrupt party. You are revealing your partisan bias, and it ain't pretty.


Offending a has-been drug addict radio dj is actually an important issue to you. Why?

See above: Hillary's issue, not mine. But thank you for giving me the opportunity to defend Mr. Limbaugh one more time.

A "has-been drug addict radio dj"? You are many things, Boonton, but please don't ever call yourself a liberal. Only a very pinched, illiberal person could mock an addict this way.

I don't like Mr. Limbaugh's rhetoric a lot of the time -- it is overheated, over-the-top, unnecessarily combative, and divisive. But I recognize that politics is not softball. Conservatives and Republicans should not unilaterally disarm in the media battles by eschewing the tactics of people like Rush Limbaugh.

If sometimes Rush crosses the boundaries of appropriate commentary, it's because he, like Ann Coulter, has chosen to take the fight to the other side in the most vigorous way that he knows and sometimes he makes mistakes. I don't hesitate to acknowledge or point out his mistakes, but I don't condemn him for being a political warrior.


If the right does matter, though, then a mutiny would signal the party "don't mess with us or we alone will cost you elections". Not only would you not be deranged over Hillary winning but you'd need her to win. If the right revolted and Giuliani won the general election anyway you'd basically have demonstrated that you don't matter. Expect to be ignored for a long time afterwards.

So it's a bit of a gamble. If you mutiny you're gambling that you're important enough to matter. Hope that if your bluff is called you really are. Then again, no guts no glory.

Boonton, I'm not sure, but I think you were misreading me about all this. I was proposing that a "religious right" rebellion against Giuliani could help him win the general election.

One of the biggest concerns about Rudy is that he is something of an authoritarian nutjob. But if genuine nutjobs like James Dobson attack Rudy from the right, it could only burnish his image and reputation with the vast majority of the country. I wasn't being sarcastic or tongue-in-cheek, I really believe that an evangelical revolt could help him pull off a victory against Hillary.

One more thing, you never told me what you like about President Bush. I'll start by saying something positive about Senator Clinton: she knows how to listen and be flexible, and she is pretty smart for a politician.

Ken writes:

John Kerry never said soldiers who supported the Vietnam or Iraq wars were 'phoney soldiers'. -- Boonton

No, he just kept reminding everybody about "When I Served In Vietnam" like Al Bundy reminding us of his College Football Stardom until it became a running joke. No wonder he never made it onto South Park -- he was already a cartoon of himself!

jd writes:

John Kerry never said soldiers who supported the Vietnam or Iraq wars were 'phoney soldiers'. Limbaugh did. Notice you don't actually say Limbaugh didn't say it or didn't mean it. No, you assert that the idea that the sacred Limbaugh could ever assert something wrong is..well just unimaginable. For someone who calls himself a Christian you seem to worship quite a few sacred cows.

I'll say it now, Boonton, you gullible troll. He didn't say it. You obviously don't know the facts. Once again, I assumed the obvious, that Rush loves soldiers and everything about them. You assume the opposite (even though Rush is the biggest warmongering, nuke-'em-all fascist who has ever lived).

However, I didn't just assume. I heard the show. I heard what he said. The whole story is one big smear. But then you would know that because you never take anything at face value, right? You always dig beyond the surface to get at the real story. The obvious can never really be true.

I'm waiting, along with Matthew Goggins, for your evidence that Rush said what you and Media Matters have accused.

Boonton writes:

I understand your skepticism, and even share it up to a point. But if Senator Thompson can't unify us, then it is probably true that nobody else who is running can.

What exactly does this mean? How are we going to be 'unified'? Do you mean the "amazingly honest" Bush didn't unify us? "Unify" seems to be a favorite rhetorical cliche for many politicians, especially ones that like to position themselves as the "noble outsider" (see Ross Perot) but is unification really our problem? We don't need to be 'unified' on Iraq. We need some sensible way to admit the truth and begin to get out.

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure Obama and Clinton use the same thing quite often in their speeches. But if you asked me why vote for them over Rudy or Fred or Mitt 'unify' is unlikely to be anywhere on the list.

My point was that Rush is Hillary's issue, not mine. At best, Hillary is using Rush as a distraction from more important issues. At worst, she really does think Rush is anti-soldier and deserves flack from the highest levels of the government.

Again he is anti-soldier. Anyone who says those who are actually serving in combat, such as the 7 soldiers who co-authored the NY Times Op-Ed (two of whom have been killed I believe) are 'phony soldiers' because they disagree with the war is objectively anti-soldier. He joins a host of right-wing riff raff who seem to have a strange habit of taking the support of the armed forces for granted. We had the hysteria over a New Republic soldier-correspondant (who wasn't even anti-war), we have Romney equating his kids 'service' in his campaign to military service, and Norman POdheretz comparing being 'attacked' in intellectual journals to being attacked in Iraq by insurgents.

But whose really distracting here. You tossed out the 'baby bonds' policy and didn't even bother to explain why it's such a bad idea. In fact it's actually quite a conservative idea. Remember, equality of opportunity rather than equality of results? That's supposed to be one of the key values of a conservative...I know you've heard that if you're a Rush listener. Needless to say Rudy's doing the same 'distraction' dance making hey over a single Moveon.org ad in the NY Times.

Wherever the truth lies, it paints Hillary as a cynical hack.

Indeed, that's your problem. Conservatives used to care about truth. Now its 'wherever it lies'.

Here's a "surface" objection for you to mull over, though, if you are interested: every government benefit is paid for by tax revenue; all tax revenue is money taken involuntarily by the government from private citizens; there is, therefore, a strong presumption against every goverment benefit, in the sense that one shouldn't take other people's money unless there is a crying need to do so and unless the government is actually the best agent to address that need.

Well if it costs $10K to send a kid to public school that's something like $120,000 for 12 years of schooling. Even if you're a voucher type person you're still talking about $7K or more per year. $5,000 put into a savings account at birth that the person can use as they please when they are adults seems like a potent asset that can overcome lots of adversities that are not the fault of the kid (bad parents, bad neighborhoods, being poor etc.)

Granted many might do nothing special with the endowment except throw a huge 18th or 21st birthday party but others could use it to make a good start on life. They might start businesses, religious ones might even start a Church or mission....or even just get a car so they can get to a job...who knows but it does seem like it has a lot of potential for good.

True there's a cost to us but it goes to our children and later on the actual cost will be neutral since when they grow up they will pay for other kids $5,000 endowments BUT they will have had their own endowments. I know it probably doesn't pass the Ayn Rand test but when did she get appointed to write our fundamental values?

A "has-been drug addict radio dj"? You are many things, Boonton, but please don't ever call yourself a liberal. Only a very pinched, illiberal person could mock an addict this way.

But its ok for Joe to call Rudy a philandering cross dresser? Why? Because he had a grand total of one marriage that ended in divorce (which I understand Joe has tied Rudy for) and once did a comedy sketch? But its ok to mock Ted Kennedy over and over again for being a drunk? Or, as Rush once did, to compare a teenage girl on national TV to a dog because you don't happen to like her father who is President? If you can't stand to see people get punched a bit stop buying tickets to the boxing matches. What I dish out is small potatos.

If sometimes Rush crosses the boundaries of appropriate commentary, it's because he, like Ann Coulter, has chosen to take the fight to the other side in the most vigorous way that he knows and sometimes he makes mistakes.

Thanks for reminding me. So the rule is Rush and Ann are off limits because they are 'political warriors'? Again how many sacred cows are you going to worship here on this Christian blog?

Game theory:

Boonton, I'm not sure, but I think you were misreading me about all this. I was proposing that a "religious right" rebellion against Giuliani could help him win the general election.

In other words the right isn't essential to the GOP winning. In that case the optimal strategy is "sit down and shut up"....take whatever the GOP gives you and hope you can eventually grow in influence.

One of the biggest concerns about Rudy is that he is something of an authoritarian nutjob. But if genuine nutjobs like James Dobson attack Rudy from the right, it could only burnish his image and reputation with the vast majority of the country. I wasn't being sarcastic or tongue-in-cheek, I really believe that an evangelical revolt could help him pull off a victory against Hillary

Perhaps but the authoritarian nutjob issue isn't ideological but personality. Rudy isn't authoritarian on liberal or conservative issues but in personality. He can't seem to stand having anyone around him who isn't a yes-man or who will detract from him having the limelight. He seems to go ballistic on really stupid pet peeves (such as his 'war' on NYC hot dog vendors or people who want to own ferrets as pets). People feared Reagan was an ideological nutjob who would push the button because the USSR was evil.....people will fear Rudy will push the button because some ambassador forgets to offer his wife coffee.

smmtheory writes:
Again he is anti-soldier. Anyone who says those who are actually serving in combat, such as the 7 soldiers who co-authored the NY Times Op-Ed (two of whom have been killed I believe) are 'phony soldiers' because they disagree with the war is objectively anti-soldier.

Get me a link to the program Rush did where he claimed those seven faked their credentials. As far as I know, nobody ever accused those seven of faking their credentials... except you, because you lumped them in with all the other people who claim to have served in Iraq but didn't, claimed to be special services but weren't, etc.

Boonton writes:
RUSH: There's a lot more than that that they don't understand. The next guy that calls here I'm going to ask them, "What is the imperative of pulling out? What's in it for the United States to pull out?" I don't think they have an answer for that other than, "When's he going to bring the troops home? Keep the troops safe," whatever. CALLER: Yeah. RUSH: It's not possible intellectually to follow these people. CALLER: No, it's not. And what's really funny is they never talk to real soldiers. They pull these soldiers that come up out of the blue and spout to the media. RUSH: The phony soldiers. CALLER: Phony soldiers. If you talk to any real soldier and they're proud to serve, they want to be over in Iraq, they understand their sacrifice and they're willing to sacrifice for the country. RUSH: They joined to be in Iraq. CALLER: A lot of people. RUSH: You know where you're going these days, the last four years, if you sign up. The odds are you're going there or Afghanistan, or somewhere.

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_092607/content/01125113.guest.html

Now I'll grant you smm that Rush didn't cite the NY Times seven. Nor did he cite the case of Jesse Macbeth who got 5 months in jail for collecting $10K in Iraq benefits that he did not earn. Lambuagh later claimed to be talking about Macbeth but that makes no sense given that the context here is critics of Iraq, not those collecting pay for serving in Iraq.

So now you're going to tell us out of the hundreds, maybe thousands of people who ever wrote a letter, wrote an article, showed up at a protest or whatnot as a critic of the Iraq war if there was one who claimed to have served there when he didn't...WHY THAT VINDICATES RUSH!!! That sword cuts both ways, though. I'm sure among all the blogs, blog comments, radio call ins there are some who claim to be pro-war who falsely claim to have served there.

I've given your sacred cow a lot more benefit of the doubt here than was given to, say, Kerry when he made that comment about education and getting stuck in Iraq.

smmtheory writes:
So now you're going to tell us out of the hundreds, maybe thousands of people who ever wrote a letter, wrote an article, showed up at a protest or whatnot as a critic of the Iraq war if there was one who claimed to have served there when he didn't...WHY THAT VINDICATES RUSH!!!

No, I'm going to remind you that anybody who claims to have served in Iraq but didn't, and anybody who claims to have been in the special services but wasn't, and anybody who basically misrepresented themselves as being a soldier when they were kicked out of boot camp is a phony soldier. And I'll go even further in qualifying what a 'phony soldier' is... deserters are phony solders, and any soldiers that willfully and knowingly engage in a gross dereliction of duty are phony soldiers.

The militant anti-war agitators only ever hold up the phony soldiers and soldiers that disgrace the uniform services as paragons. But you are the one who lumps the phony soldiers in with the real soldiers and dishonors them by refusing to recognize the difference.

Boonton writes:

That's nice smm, but that's not what Rush was talking about...at least by any reasonable reading of the transcript. We are told Rush was talking about one guy, yet he didn't say 'phony soldier' but 'soldiers', the plural. The one guy he was supposedly talking about was mentioned after this conversation and that guy was never spotlighted by any major mainstream media I'm aware of...at best he seems to have made the blogs of some peace groups.

It's hardly a smear to read Rush as saying the 'phony soldiers' are the ones who criticize the war policy of this adminsitration and the 'real ones' aren't just ones who are serving but also have to agree with Bush. Look at the transcript:
**************
CALLER: I'm one of the few that joined the Army to serve my country, I'm proud to say, not for the money or anything like that. What I would like to retort to is that, what these people don't understand, is if we pull out of Iraq right now, which is not possible because of all the stuff that's over there, it would take us at least a year to pull everything back out of Iraq, then Iraq itself would collapse and we'd have to go right back over there within a year or so.

RUSH: There's a lot more than that that they don't understand. The next guy that calls here I'm going to ask them, "What is the imperative of pulling out? What's in it for the United States to pull out?" I don't think they have an answer for that other than, "When's he going to bring the troops home? Keep the troops safe," whatever.

CALLER: Yeah.

RUSH: It's not possible intellectually to follow these people.

CALLER: No, it's not. And what's really funny is they never talk to real soldiers. They pull these soldiers that come up out of the blue and spout to the media.
************************

If this was just about phony soldiers in the sense you're trying to sell the whole discussion is moot. If you want to know if someone's phony just check his records. A person could even be a real soldier and also be a complete idiot when speaking about policy.

No the 'real soldier' must meet a greater requirement of agreeing with policy.

Again I have given your sacred cow a lot more benefit of the doubt than any of you would have given Kerry regarding the education flap. I'll go a step further, perhaps Rush just had no idea what he was saying. Perhaps this was so some ill formed thought that escaped his head before he sharpened it up. His show is live after all and you have to expect a little bit of stumbling...even from a professional. But you guys lose that credit because if that was the case it wouldn't be a 'smear' by that evil Media Matters outfit.


Matthew Goggins writes:

Boonton,

What exactly does this mean? How are we going to be 'unified'?

You know what unity is -- we saw it after 9-11. The nation had shared a deeply meaningful event and was struggling together to make sense of it and come up with a proper response.

That unity held stongly going into the spring of 2002. President Bush pushed hard to go into Iraq, and the unity frayed and fell apart pretty quickly.

How could a President Thompson unify us? By trying to enlist both sides of the political spectrum in tackling our problems. You don't think he has a very good prospect for success, but I wouldn't say it's impossible either.

Who would have thunk that that old Nazi-baiter imperialist dinosaur Winston Churchill could have had such tremendous success unifying Britain during its death match with Hitler? Sometimes the right individual at the right time can make all the difference.


We don't need to be 'unified' on Iraq. We need some sensible way to admit the truth and begin to get out.

I think it would be very helpful if everyone could manage to agree on what the truth is.

Why hasn't President Bush been able to pull off building such a consensus? Partly because he was hobbled by Democratic bitterness over the razor-close election results in Florida in 2000. Partly because our enemies in Iraq were able to play our media much better than our own government could.

Hopefully both of those factors could be ameliorated under a Thompson administration.


You tossed out the 'baby bonds' policy and didn't even bother to explain why it's such a bad idea. In fact it's actually quite a conservative idea. Remember, equality of opportunity rather than equality of results?

It is not conservative to create a new entitlement, however modest, while ducking the issue of taming Social Security and Medicare.

And of course, baby bonds are not even the tip of the iceberg. They are just a slight trial-balloon pander serving as a warm-up to the main event: far-reaching new government regulation and funding of our massive health-care and health insurance sectors.


If you can't stand to see people get punched a bit stop buying tickets to the boxing matches. What I dish out is small potatos.

Fair point. But I am still repulsed by the bile in your referring to Rush as a "has-been drug addict radio dj".

Rush has paid a price for his addiction and has publicly repented as well. If you can't move on from that particular point, then it says something about you, not him.

I wouldn't refer to Giuliani as a cross-dressing philanderer, mainly because he hasn't been philandering for many years now. But if Joe is offended by Giuliani's cross-dressing humor, and even more offended by his lack of atonement for his long-ago philandering, then that is not bile and illiberality, that is just holding Giuliani accountable for his actions when he is asking to assume the most responsible position in the land.


Thanks for reminding me. So the rule is Rush and Ann are off limits because they are 'political warriors'? Again how many sacred cows are you going to worship here on this Christian blog?

I didn't say they were off limits. I'm advising you not to stoop down to their level when you are trying to say that you hold the moral high ground. And I'm also explaining why their provocative rhetoric doesn't bother me a whole lot. Of course it would bother you, because their rhetoric is expressly designed to bother you.


Perhaps but the authoritarian nutjob issue isn't ideological but personality.

We have come to a point of agreement, my friend. But I think that Dobson's attacks on Giuliani make him look good by comparison on both ideological and personality grounds. Since Giuliani will need all the help he can get, this is not a trivial point, and could well tip the balance in his favor.

Matthew Goggins writes:

Boonton,

I forgot to respond to your evidence for the "phony soldier" rap against Rush Limbaugh.

Thank you for being so responsive to my request.

I can see, based on the transcript, why you think Rush is slandering anti-war soldiers and veterans. But I heard an audio clip of the whole segment, and it sounded to me like Rush was just trying to seg into his Jesse MacBeth rant by prompting the caller with the phrase "phony soldiers".

When you listen to the clip, the caller actually cuts off Rush before he can finish what he is saying, which is something that does not come across at all in the printed transcript.

Rush is guilty of no more than an arkwardly attempted seg into a bit about "real" phony soldiers such as Jesse MacBeth. The caller, on the other hand, seems rather delusional about anti-war soldiers, and Rush does nothing to disabuse him of his delusions, since that would have impeded the flow of his own bluster.

So I understand your confusion. However, none of this lets the Democratic senators off the hook who engaged in McCarthy-ite grandstanding on the floor on the Senate. There's no mystery as to why President Bush is twice as popular as the Congress.

Which reminds me, sir: please tell me what you like about President Bush. Surely there are a couple of genuinely nice things you can say about him, no?

Boonton writes:

You know what unity is -- we saw it after 9-11. The nation had shared a deeply meaningful event and was struggling together to make sense of it and come up with a proper response.

Unity that was not created by leadership but by common experience. While its important to remember it, it is more important to remember that is not normal nor should it be. It's also slightly disrespectful to be asserting that such an emotional period will be recreated by, what, Thomson's 'amazing' personality.

Who would have thunk that that old Nazi-baiter imperialist dinosaur Winston Churchill could have had such tremendous success unifying Britain during its death match with Hitler?

We are not in a death match with Hitler, nor anyone else for that matter. Leadership here involves being more realistic rather than pushing hysteria for the sake of short term political gain.

It is not conservative to create a new entitlement, however modest, while ducking the issue of taming Social Security and Medicare.

Medicare Part D? Anyway it may be technically an entitlement but functionally it's quite different. Entitlements, for the most part, are on autopilot so their costs are unpredictable and essentially uncontrollable. If medical care gets more expensive so does Medicare. This one is a fixed sum. Actually very conservative plus considering that many people might just let the endowment ride all the way to age 65 it could end up being a useful tool in tackling Social Security & Medicare in the distant future.

I wouldn't refer to Giuliani as a cross-dressing philanderer, mainly because he hasn't been philandering for many years now. But if Joe is offended by Giuliani's cross-dressing humor, and even more offended by his lack of atonement for his long-ago philandering, then that is not bile and illiberality, that is just holding Giuliani accountable for his actions when he is asking to assume the most responsible position in the land.

Exactly why does Giuliani have to atone to Joe for philandering? Joe is not his first wife nor a member of his family and JOe certainly isn't God. You're stretching pretty hard here to explain why Rush should be excused from being called a drug addict but Giuliani is fair game. If I recall any suffering Rush endured was his own doing by choosing to committ crimes. He made a brief statement telling his listeners that he was checking into rehab to get treatment. His lawyer was indignant that Florida could possibly consider charging him with a crime and he fought charges at every turn until he basically took a deal to pay off the state in exchange for not filing charges (but agreed to submit to random drug testing). To the end he allged he was being unfairly prosecuted rather than admitting he had brought this on himself. Needless to say I also don't recall any apology or atonement made to his housekeeper, who I believe he was paying to supply him with drugs. While you probably didn't think of it, that was a bad abuse of the employer-employee relationship essentially putting her at risk.

As I said, your empathy for victims of bile is remarkably selective.

I'm advising you not to stoop down to their level when you are trying to say that you hold the moral high ground. And I'm also explaining why their provocative rhetoric doesn't bother me a whole lot. Of course it would bother you, because their rhetoric is expressly designed to bother you.

This wasn't about whether or not their provacative rhetoric bothers me but why you seem to get so excited by a rather minor criticism of one of them by Hillary....a criticism that had nothing to do with the 'bile' you accuse me of. Again I suspect HDS, too bad we can't consult Doctor House for a second opinion.

We have come to a point of agreement, my friend. But I think that Dobson's attacks on Giuliani make him look good by comparison on both ideological and personality grounds. Since Giuliani will need all the help he can get, this is not a trivial point, and could well tip the balance in his favor.

Indeed here we agree. Giuliani's biggest problems, IMO, are his personality. But this seems to indicate a larger malise with the GOP. What's kind of ironic is that personality wise Dobson is probably more normal than Giuliani. The field is so much in play, I think, because all the candidates are exceptionally weak and directionless.

Boonton writes:

smmtheory

The militant anti-war agitators only ever hold up the phony soldiers and soldiers that disgrace the uniform services as paragons. But you are the one who lumps the phony soldiers in with the real soldiers and dishonors them by refusing to recognize the difference.

If this is your argument then you are saying Rush is a scumbag. Look at the transcript again:

****
LIMBAUGH: There's a lot more than that that they don't understand. They can't
even -- if -- the next guy that calls here, I'm gonna ask him: Why should we
pull -- what is the imperative for pulling out? What's in it for the United
States to pull out? They can't -- I don't think they have an answer for that
other than, "Well, we just gotta bring the troops home."

CALLER 2: Yeah, and, you know what --

LIMBAUGH: "Save the -- keep the troops safe" or whatever. I -- it's not
possible, intellectually, to follow these people.

CALLER 2: No, it's not, and what's really funny is, they never talk to real
soldiers. They like to pull these soldiers that come up out of the blue and
talk to the media.

LIMBAUGH: The phony soldiers.
*******

If you and Rush are behing honest, if he is talking about Jesse McBeth then why is the complaint that its intellectually impossible to follow their arguments? If this is the case Rush is saying his beef is not that Jesse is faking his military service, it's that he is advocating a bad policy with a poor argument. Presumably, then, if Jesse McBeth just happened to be a faker who supported the Iraq war then Rush would be OK with him. Rush's supposed 'love' of the military then is very superficial. He only seems to 'love' how the military is politically useful for the Republican party.

As I pointed out, among the hundreds or thousands of radio callers, bloggers, commenters etc. there are probably many cases of pro-war people falsely claiming to have military service too. Obviously every group, talk show host, or web site cannot conduct background checks to confirm everyone's military status. That wouldn't make it right, though, to dismiss pro-war vets as phony even if we found a hundred examples.

Of course the truth is that this is all a lie, it has nothing to do with people who are faking their military credentials like McBeth.

1. Jesse McBeth is not mentioned until a full 1 minute, 50 seconds later.

2. To make Rush even more suspect, he aired a clip that spliced out 1 minute 35 seconds thereby making it seem like Jesse was mentioned almost immediately after the comment when he really wasn't.

3. McBeth is one soldier, not many so what's with the "phony soldiers" rather than "phony soldier"?

4. McBeth has no serious mentions in the mainstream media either as advocating a pull out of Iraq or much of anything. His only known mentions previous to this are a "Pepperspray Productions" video where he complains the maintream media ignores him, an interview on socialistalternative.org and an article in the Eastern Arizona Courier from 11/3/2003 (which just seems to have identified him as a vet who sustained injuries...nothing else). Beyond that there is just an Arizona Indymedia article saying he got into a dispute at a coffee shop by Arizona State U. All other mentions appear to be self-published MySpace and Military.com profiles. In other words, McBeth WAS NEVER a soldier the media talked to about Iraq or Iraqi policy.

Boonton writes:

And also smm, I didn't hold McBeth up as anything but a liar and petty criminal. The example I held up was the soldiers who wrote the editorial to the NY Times, two of whom I understand were sadly killed in action and another was wounded from a shot in the head. It wasn't right for Rush to imply they were 'phony soldiers' and it isn't right for you to imply those that cite them don't care about the difference between real and phony soldiers.

jd writes:

Boonton wrote:

I have admitted I was wrong when it was demonstrated. If I missed any such points please feel free to point them out. As for why I bother here, see my blog entry on being a pin in a bubble factory. You guys would be a lot worse without my efforts, for this I don't even ask for money from you!

First, if you promise to stay at your blog, I'll promise not to visit.

Second, you say pin, I say prick.

jd writes:

And one more thing. Why do pinheads have such an inflated view of themselves?

Boonton writes:

A side effect of talent on loan from God perhaps?

smmtheory writes:
It wasn't right for Rush to imply they were 'phony soldiers' and it isn't right for you to imply those that cite them don't care about the difference between real and phony soldiers.

Rush didn't, and you and the rest of you who won't quit saying he did are the real problem. You are the ones who are equating them with phony soldiers, not Rush.

Boonton writes:

Again the transcript and Rush's later behavior speaks for itself.

jd writes:

Yes, and again, you choose to ignore it.

Boonton writes:

How so?

joe writes:

I personally don't see what we hope to gain by supporting Republicans who don't support our values. "Pro-choice", illegal immigration, and anti-mariage politicians will not bring the party back in line with us. Register Constitution party and send a message that there are conservative christians in this country and our votes are not to be taken for granted. You want our support, you have to support us. If Rudy gets the nomination, vote third party or stay home, that's my view at least.

jd writes:

It's about the Supreme Court, Joe. With Hillary you'll get another Ruth Buzzi Ginsburg. At least with Rudy there's a chance you'll get a conservative. You vote third party, you elect Hillary. I know. I voted Perot back in the day and I helped to elect the worst man to have ever been President.

Baggi writes:

Why didn't Boonton share the entire transcript?

Here is the entire transcript

"CALLER: No, it's not. And what's really funny is they never talk to real soldiers. They like to pull these soldiers that come up out of the blue and spout to the media.

RUSH: The phony soldiers.

CALLER: The phony soldiers. If you talk to any real soldier and they're proud to serve, they want to be over in Iraq, they understand their sacrifice and they're willing to sacrifice for the country.

RUSH: They joined to be in Iraq.

RUSH: It's frustrating and maddening, and why they must be kept in the minority. I want to thank you, Mike, for calling. I appreciate it very much.

Here is a Morning Update that we did recently, talking about fake soldiers. This is a story of who the left props up as heroes. They have their celebrities and one of them was Army Ranger Jesse MacBeth. Now, he was a "corporal." I say in quotes. Twenty-three years old. What made Jesse MacBeth a hero to the anti-war crowd wasn't his Purple Heart; it wasn't his being affiliated with post-traumatic stress disorder from tours in Afghanistan and Iraq. No. What made Jesse MacBeth, Army Ranger, a hero to the left was his courage, in their view, off the battlefield, without regard to consequences. He told the world the abuses he had witnessed in Iraq, American soldiers killing unarmed civilians, hundreds of men, women, even children. In one gruesome account, translated into Arabic and spread widely across the Internet, Army Ranger Jesse MacBeth describes the horrors this way: "We would burn their bodies. We would hang their bodies from the rafters in the mosque."


Now, recently, Jesse MacBeth, poster boy for the anti-war left, had his day in court. And you know what? He was sentenced to five months in jail and three years probation for falsifying a Department of Veterans Affairs claim and his Army discharge record. He was in the Army. Jesse MacBeth was in the Army, folks, briefly. Forty-four days before he washed out of boot camp. Jesse MacBeth isn't an Army Ranger, never was. He isn't a corporal, never was. He never won the Purple Heart, and he was never in combat to witness the horrors he claimed to have seen. You probably haven't even heard about this. And, if you have, you haven't heard much about it. This doesn't fit the narrative and the template in the Drive-By Media and the Democrat Party as to who is a genuine war hero. Don't look for any retractions, by the way. Not from the anti-war left, the anti-military Drive-By Media, or the Arabic websites that spread Jesse MacBeth's lies about our troops, because the truth for the left is fiction that serves their purpose. They have to lie about such atrocities because they can't find any that fit the template of the way they see the US military. In other words, for the American anti-war left, the greatest inconvenience they face is the truth."

So when Boonton writes;

" Nor did he cite the case of Jesse Macbeth who got 5 months in jail for collecting $10K in Iraq benefits that he did not earn."

He's lying to you. Flat out lying to you. Rush did cite specifically Jesse McBeth. Its right there in the transcript.

As Reagan would say, "Trust but verify" although i'm not so sure about why anyone would trust Boonton at this point.

smmtheory writes:

I stopped long ago.

Matthew Goggins writes:

Boonton,

You may have missed my comment 41, which addresses the "phony soldier" quote and why I believe you are mistaken. It took a couple of days for the comment to clear Joe's filter and hit the comment thread.


[Matthew said:] I'm advising you not to stoop down to their level when you are trying to say that you hold the moral high ground. And I'm also explaining why their provocative rhetoric doesn't bother me a whole lot. Of course it would bother you, because their rhetoric is expressly designed to bother you.

[Boonton:] This wasn't about whether or not their provocative rhetoric bothers me but why you seem to get so excited by a rather minor criticism of one of them by Hillary....a criticism that had nothing to do with the 'bile' you accuse me of. Again I suspect HDS, too bad we can't consult Doctor House for a second opinion.

It wasn't a minor criticism. It was part of a co-ordinated attack on the floor of the Senate, which included speculation by Senator Harkin that Mr. Limbaugh was high on drugs.

Most importantly, it was part of a co-ordinated attack by one branch of the government on an influential private individual. It was retaliation against a powerful private individual as a reward for his being an effective critic.

Like I said, I don't care a whole lot for Rush's rhetoric. If Al Franken or Chris Matthews had roasted him, I wouldn't have paid the least bit notice. But Hillary and the "Democrats" have been making noises about bringing back the "Fairness Doctrine" for radio talk-shows, and that is something I adamantly oppose, and Hillary can go to h--l if she thinks I'm not going to call her out on it.

Of course, you are tempermentally opposed to the "Fairness Doctrine" because you believe that free speech should generally not be regulated by the government.

But you also know that talk-radio has been vastly more successful for conservatives than for liberals, so I suspect that as a left-leaner you are probably torn a little bit inside and don't want to condemn the "Fairness Doctrine" out of hand.

I find it interesting that you accuse me of over-reaction over the Rush kerfuffle when your comments have slipped into ad hominem attacks against not only Rush, but against myself and President Bush as well.

Here's a psychological hypothesis which might explain your projection: Rush is a wildly successful popper of balloons in a media-world dominated by liberal commentary and news outlets. You are an aspiring popper of balloons in the blog-world. Subconsciously, you recognize yourself in Mr. Limbaugh, but you recoil at the fact that he is on the wrong side of just about everything. You feel particularly betrayed that someone should promote himself as an iconoclast when you want to dismiss him as a foolish partisan blowhard.

When I defend Mr. Limbaugh on simple humanitarian grounds, you rush in to poke at the perceived illogic in my reaction: I'm defending a brute from brutality. But of course, you would do the same thing if he were a liberal brute, and you probably wouldn't even think twice about it. A conservative brute, though, elicits a harsh reaction from you.

But of course, as I explained above, when I defend a powerful, wealthy, and admittedly flawed brute, I'm actually defending everyone, you and me included, from the tendency of people in government to want to silence, or at least mightily inconvenience, their critics.

That isn't Hillary Derangement Syndrome, that's just taking a stand for freedom before the opponents of freedom can build a lot of momentum.

Hasta luego, amigo,
Matthew

Boonton writes:

Matt

Here we go again with the Rush is a Martyr routine. Did you have this same opinion when Rudy demanded that everyone under the sun vote to condemm Moveon.org for their General Betray Us ad? Forgive me if it still seems like the sacred cows are on one side of the political spectrum here.

But you also know that talk-radio has been vastly more successful for conservatives than for liberals, so I suspect that as a left-leaner you are probably torn a little bit inside and don't want to condemn the "Fairness Doctrine" out of hand.

I understand the conservatives have flip-flopped on the fairness doctrine, once supporting it and now being against it. I don't support it because I think broadcast media is too minor a player in our intellectual debates these days to really worry about. You should note, though, that even under the fairness doctrine Rush still would have had his show. The doctrine just required 'the other side' to have its say...not equal time. Usually this took the form of one or two minutes given to 'the other side' on the daily news.

When I defend Mr. Limbaugh on simple humanitarian grounds, you rush in to poke at the perceived illogic in my reaction: I'm defending a brute from brutality. But of course, you would do the same thing if he were a liberal brute, and you probably wouldn't even think twice about it. A conservative brute, though, elicits a harsh reaction from you.

But the brute is not being attacked with brutality. If someone supports the fairness doctrine that may be a wrong position but that isn't in itself brutality nor is it brutality to complain about what Rush said. It also isn't brutality for me to call Rush as I see him, a has-been, drug addict shock jock. And no remember Rush didn't get any reaction out of me, what I reacted to was your idea that the most important thing about Hillary was that she dared criticize Rush.

Baggi,

I didn't say that Rush never mentioned McBeth. I pointed out in post 43, in fact, he did mention him. The problem is that citation comes in a different segment and obviously cannot be read backwards as referring to the phony soldiers Rush spoke about. McBeth never showed up in the media as an advocate of withdrawl, is only a single person (Rush complained about 'phony soldiers' not 'the phony soldier' or 'this phony soldier'), and, of course, it's rather strange to be asserting that the problem with McBeth was that "not possible, intellectually, to follow" him....IT'S THAT THE DAMM GUY WAS FAKING BEING A SOLDIER! Again if your assertion is correct you've simply demonstrated Rush to be a scumbag since he's essentially saying its ok to be a phony soldier as long as you're advocating the right policies.

Matthew Goggins writes:

Boonton,

Again if your assertion is correct you've simply demonstrated Rush to be a scumbag since he's essentially saying its ok to be a phony soldier as long as you're advocating the right policies.

Umm, now you're just being silly Boonton.

Even if on the inside Rush happened to be pleased by a phony pro-war soldier, he would never say so publicly. And of course we have no reason to believe he would approve of a phony pro-war soldier; Rush would probably resent him for disrespecting the troops and for being a propaganda point for the other side.

Use the preview button a little more diligently, or people will start disbelieving you here :-)


But the brute is not being attacked with brutality. If someone supports the fairness doctrine that may be a wrong position but that isn't in itself brutality nor is it brutality to complain about what Rush said.

It also isn't brutality for me to call Rush as I see him, a has-been, drug addict shock jock. And no remember Rush didn't get any reaction out of me, what I reacted to was your idea that the most important thing about Hillary was that she dared criticize Rush.

Boonton, read my comment again. I wasn't talking about you, I was talking about Senator McCarthy -- oops, I mean Senator Clinton -- and Senator Harkin and all the other inspirational congressional leaders.

But of course, your opinion matters too, because we get the representatives we deserve. If enough Americans approve of the Fairness Doctrine, then that enables the Hildabeast and her allies to push it through.

When I said you would defend a brute if he were liberal instead of conservative, I didn't know you would be so eager to prove me right by jumping right in and defending MoveOn's smear of General Petreaus. Have you no sense of cognitive dissonance, sir -- at long last have you no sense of cognitive dissonance?


I didn't say that Rush never mentioned McBeth. I pointed out in post 43, in fact, he did mention him.

I noticed that, and you also mentioned that the transcript provided by Rush is misleading because it leaves out about a minute and a half between the two segments. So I vouch for your good faith.

But I still disagree with you about the "phony soldiers" quote.

Rush wasn't making a general claim about all anti-war soldiers, he was making a clumsy attempt to bridge into the upcoming Jesse MacBeth segment. It was an attempt that was easy to misinterpret, and which the Senate Democrats were anxious to misinterpret.


McBeth never showed up in the media as an advocate of withdrawl, ...

This isn't as silly as the first comment of yours that I quoted above, but it is very close.

Of course Jesse MacBeth did show up in the media. He was interviewed about alleged atrocities which he eyewitnessed, and the media accounts I saw passed along his testimony without raising questions about his reliability or accuracy (before he was exposed as a con-artist).

If someone appears in the media and makes up eyewitness testimony about alleged war crimes, then he is not an advocate against the war in your opinion? Remember the preview button, Boonton, it is your friend.

[MacBeth] ... is only a single person (Rush complained about 'phony soldiers' not 'the phony soldier' or 'this phony soldier') ...

Boonton, it's called giving an example. It happened to be a topical example because MacBeth had been sentenced a couple of days previously.

I do agree with you that Rush's argument is overstated and inflammatory. But by no means is it "anti-soldier", which is what Clinton & Co. were insisting on the floor of the Senate.

... and, of course, it's rather strange to be asserting that the problem with McBeth was that "not possible, intellectually, to follow" him....IT'S THAT THE DAMM GUY WAS FAKING BEING A SOLDIER!

If you read the transcript or listen to the clip, it's clear that Rush was referring specifically to the following anti-war argument: we shouldn't have gone into Iraq, so therefore we should leave right away, even if it makes things a hell of a lot worse. And that is precisely the argument that I have heard anti-war soldiers and politicians make.


Here we go again with the Rush is a Martyr routine. Did you have this same opinion when Rudy demanded that everyone under the sun vote to condemm Moveon.org for their General Betray Us ad? Forgive me if it still seems like the sacred cows are on one side of the political spectrum here.

Rush is not a martyr (you also labeled him a has-been, which is also incorrect). Rush is a canary in the coal-mine.

First they went after the overweight, pompous media titans -- and I said nothing. Then they went after all the talk-show jockeys and news broadcasters -- and I said nothing. Then they went after the bloggers and the blog commenters -- and there was no one left to say anything [cue the scary music].

As for MoveOn and the Petreaus ad, you can defend it if you like, and you do. But if a political advocacy group with close ties to Clinton & Co. is going to accuse our commander in the field of dishonesty/unreliability, and imply that he is disloyal to his country, I would hope you would demand they have some evidence first. But you are free to choose whatever standards make you happy.

Boonton writes:

Even if on the inside Rush happened to be pleased by a phony pro-war soldier, he would never say so publicly. And of course we have no reason to believe he would approve of a phony pro-war soldier; Rush would probably resent him for disrespecting the troops and for being a propaganda point for the other side.

Well if Rush really was talking about McBeth then why is he complaining about not being able to follow his arguments about withdrawl (arguments never made as far as anyone seems to know)? Kind of like complaining about Charlie Manson writing poor poetry isn't it?

Boonton, read my comment again. I wasn't talking about you, I was talking about Senator McCarthy -- oops, I mean Senator Clinton -- and Senator Harkin and all the other inspirational congressional leaders.

Indeed, I found it striking that the two most important things that leaped into your mind to criticize Hillary for was her attack on Rush's statement and the baby bond idea. I find Rush such a has-been that it's strange to get all uppity that he is criticized. Imagine I said Mitt Romney said critical things of Rosie ODonald or Michael Moore?

But of course, your opinion matters too, because we get the representatives we deserve. If enough Americans approve of the Fairness Doctrine, then that enables the Hildabeast and her allies to push it through.

And perhaps we need it since it seems we are not allowed to directly criticize the right even when they clearly say things that should be critized. Again I don't think the Fairness Doctrine is worth caring about as it was a pretty minor regulation even back when broadcast media mattered....

When I said you would defend a brute if he were liberal instead of conservative, I didn't know you would be so eager to prove me right by jumping right in and defending MoveOn's smear of General Petreaus. Have you no sense of cognitive dissonance, sir -- at long last have you no sense of cognitive dissonance?

Errr, I didn't defend them. I pointed out that the right did the same thing you are supposedly saying you would be even-handed about. Demanding Congressional votes to 'condem' speech etc. You say you're even handed but Rudy & others seem to get lots and lots of passes from you.

I noticed that, and you also mentioned that the transcript provided by Rush is misleading because it leaves out about a minute and a half between the two segments. So I vouch for your good faith.

I had to reread that part twice on the Media Matters cite. What they said was that Rush aired a clip where he cut out a minute and change between the 'phony' sentence and the 'morning update' where McBeth was the topic thereby making it seem like it happened immediately afterwards. They didn't charge that the transcript was altered, without digging up audio files I have no idea if it takes a minute to speak the paragraph or so between the two.

What's not misleading, though, is that McBeth comes AFTER the discussion with the caller and McBeth does not fit the discussion with the caller at all unless you're very creative.

Rush wasn't making a general claim about all anti-war soldiers, he was making a clumsy attempt to bridge into the upcoming Jesse MacBeth segment. It was an attempt that was easy to misinterpret, and which the Senate Democrats were anxious to misinterpret.

I was willing to grant him the credit at the start of this thread...he was shooting his mouth off and wasn't thinking but that's not what he said. He said that he was talking about McBeth all along and anyone who gets upset is just being purposefully deceptive. His supporters are taking the same lie jumping up and down all over the place saying the transcript proves him right...it doesn't.

He did the same thing with regards to the drug problem, claiming he was the victim of selective