During the beginning of the Cold War, the US Air Force began performing experiments with rocket-sleds, a small railroad car with rockets attached, in order to test how humans were able to withstand rapid acceleration. One experiment required mounting a set of 16 accelerometers to different parts of the subject's body in order to measure the acceleration. Each sensor could be glued to its mount in one of two ways. Naturally, the technician mounting the devices installed all 16 the wrong way.
A few days later, a press conference was held and the subject of the experiment, a young Air Force captain and medical doctor named John Paul Stapp, was asked how it was possible that no one had been severely injured during the rocket sled tests. Stapp replied that is was because they took Murphy's Law under consideration, The principle was named after Edward A. Murphy, Jr, a development engineer working on the project, who is claimed to have said, “"If it can happen, it will happen.” Stapp claimed that they were able to prevent accidents by considering all the possibilities before doing a test.
Since that day in 1949, Murphy’s Law* has proven itself to be one of the most consistent laws in the universe. Murphy and his team of engineers were used to dealing with design flaws and had training in how to correct them. The common man, however, has been less able to compensate for the effects of ML.
But now, thanks to some panel of experts commissioned by British Gas, you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to predict the occurrence of Murphy’s law.
The panel, which consists of a psychologist, a mathematician, and an economist, has discovered the statistical formula for predicting Murphy’s Law occurrences to be: ((U+C+I) x (10-S))/20 x A x 1/(1-sin(F/10)). [Note: Using the Murphy’s Law calculator makes it easy to calculate the probability.]
Four variables comprise the formula (urgency (U), complexity (C), importance (I), skill (S) and frequency (F)) with each applied to a task or an event, and each scored between 0 and 9. A sixth factor, aggravation (A), was set at constant of 0.7.
"In our experts' tests, the mercilessness of [Murphy’s Law] emerged,” said Anne Morton of British Gas. “Not only do things go wrong, they do so when they are most likely to drive their victims up the wall.”
"For example, [Murphy’s Law] shows how cruel it can be when it comes to the shower turning cold just as you've shampooed. Men aren't bothered, and so the chances of it happening to them are low; women hate it and it happens far more to them."
Dr David Lewis, the psychologist on the project, says, "The lesson from this is that, to cut the seemingly unbeatable [Murphy’s Law] Gremlins down to size you need to change one of the elements in the equation.”
Lewis provides some advice that is especially useful for bloggers: "When you're emailing an important document anxiety will make it more likely that you will hit one of those mysterious keyboard combinations that make everything vanish. Try not to let your computer know you're in a hurry."
Good idea. You might notice that it takes longer than normal to read the words in this post. That's becasue I typed them slowly in order to fool my computer into thinking I was taking my time. It seems to have worked -- no lost data, no computer crash, no blue screen of death. Thanks, Dr. Lewis!
*The British incorrectly refer to it as Sod’s law. I’ve taken the liberty of translating the British into proper English by replacing “Sod’s Law” with “Murphy’s Law” wherever it occurs.
(HT: Bene)
Uh oh.
I just plugged in the numbers, and there is an 86% chance that Kerry will win the election.
Kevin,
Try checking the blanks as if you were John Kerry. If you understand that the probability of Murphy's law occurring then applies to you, the result is a bit more satisfying.
Mark S.
Astros suck.
Yow. Say it ain't so!
By golly, Mark, you're exactly right!!
Feeling much better today.