Since 1976 there have been five elections with an open Democratic nomination. How reliable has the New Hampshire primary been at predicting the future nominee? Slightly better than the Iowa caucus. But more interestingly, out of five non-incumbent elections, the 1st or 2nd place winner of the primary eventually went on to win the nomination.
--When one of the candidates is the current vice president: 50% accuracy on two elections (predicted Gore but chose Hart over Mondale).
--When the vice-president isn’t running: Two primary winners (Carter and Dukakis) out of three elections won the top slot and eventually became the nominee.
--Overall non-incumbent prediction rate: 3 of 5 (60%)
--Number of times the second place winner won the nomination: 2 of 5 (40%)
--Number of times the winner has been the same as the Iowa caucus winner: 2 of 5 (Carter and Gore)
Here is the primary data since 1976:
1976 (8 candidates)
Caucus winner: Jimmy Carter; Nominee: Jimmy Carter
1980 – Incumbent (Carter)
1984 (6 candidates)
Caucus winner: Gary Hart; Nominee: Walter Mondale
1988 (8 candidates)
Caucus winner: Michael Dukakis; Nominee: Michael Dukakis
1992 (9 candidates)
Caucus winner: Paul Tsongas; Nominee: Bill Clinton
1996 – Incumbent (Clinton)
2000
Caucus winner: Al Gore; Nominee: Al Gore
Update: Josh from BushBlog puts my research to shame. I only went back to '76. He want back to '52! Still, the results were the same, "no candidate who did worse than second has ever won the party's nomination."
Update 2: Southern Appeal found this quote by DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe:
You know, Iowa and New Hampshire, great states -- but really not representative of the Democratic Party. Don't mean it critically, but there really aren't any minorities in those states.
Since the 1st or 2nd place finisher of NH will likely be the eventual nominee, what does this say about the Democrat's commitment to "diversity?" As Mark from SA asks, "Question -- when has the Democrat Party, which was pro-slavery and anti-civil rights, ever done anything to help minorites? "
Joe, that's a little unfair. You know that the D's and the GOP switched sides on race in the 50's and 60's. And there are no minorities to speak of in Iowa and New Hampsire. Terry M. is speaking of changing the primary to Mich, or a more representitive state in 08.