Another Misguided Prophet: My N.H. Primary Predictions

California Yankee has suckered me in. I’m already on record so I’ll go ahead and elucidate on my previous N.H. prediction:

Kerry
Clark
Edwards
Dean

1. Kerry will have at least a 15 point lead.
2. Clark and Edwards will be neck and neck.
3. Dean comes in at between 15-18%
4. Kucinich and Lieberman stay in the single digits. Dennis calls it quits but ol’ Joe will soldier on (he’ll wait until S.C. to throw in the towel).
5. I’ll either be singing Nick’s praises again or blaming him for leading me down the road to embarrassment.

Update: I should probably clarify why I think Clark comes in second. In a word? Independents. There are more independents than Democrats in NH. They will throw their vote behind someone and Clark is the candidate most like them (read: liberal but not a true-blue Democrat).

As the NYT's has pointed out:

Some campaign aides estimated that independents could make up 40 percent to 50 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary. That is a particularly large figure because, unlike in 2000, there is no significant Republican presidential primary.

"There are significantly many more independents than Democrats in New Hampshire," said Ray Buckley, vice chairman of the state Democratic Party and an adviser to Mr. Lieberman. "If a candidate in the closing days is able to get the support of those votes, it can make things vary wildly, which is exactly what happened with McCain."

Update 2: I may end up being wrong but at least I'll be in good company. PoliPundit also has a Kerry-Clark with Dean finishing third (that's the lineup I should have went with).