"Measuring probabilities," says Amir Aczel, "is a simple as counting." Simply count the possibilities of an event and divide this number by the total number of possibilities (assuming the possibilities are equally likely). For example, what is the probability of rolling an even number on a six-sided die? Since there are three even numbers (two, four, six) out of six equally likely numbers, the answer is 3/6 = 1/2, or fifty percent. What if you have a deck of fifty-two playing cards, what is the probability of drawing an ace? Since there are four aces out of fifty-two cards equally likely to be chosen, the probability of an ace is 4/52 = 1/13 = 0.0769, or about eight percent.

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The De Finetti Game is a method to gauge someone's confidence in the chances of a given event occurring by measuring it against a lottery with a known probability. Say for example a friend claims he is 95% sure he aced a test. Is he really that confident? Offer him a hypothetical choice. He can either get the result of the test, and if he aced it, he wins one million dollars, or he can pick a ball out of bag. There are 90 red balls and 10 blue in the bag, and if he picks a red ball then he wins the million. Now if he doesn't choose his test score then he is at most 90% confident.

Now tell him that there are now 70 red balls in the bag and 30 black ones. If he answers that he would rather wait on the results of the test rather than draw, then he is between 70-90% sure of the outcome. You can keep adjusting the ratio of red to blue balls until he chooses the test score to find out how confident he really is. (Source: Amir D. Aczels Chance)

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How to value an investment -- The more likely or unlikely an outcome, the more or less you (should) value it. Suppose, for instance, someone offers you an investment that has a 30% chance of earning $1000, a 20% chance of earning you $2000, and a 50% chance of losing you $400 dollars. How much is the investment worth (i.e., how much can you expect to make on this investment)?

The answer is found by adding the sum of the products of the values and their probabilities. For example:

0.3 x 1,000 x 0.2 x 2,000 + 0.5 x (-400) = $500

Over the long term you can expect to make, on average, $500 every time you invest. (HT: Amir D. Aczel, Chance)

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How do you know when you've met Mr./Ms. Right? How do you determine who, among the available range of candidates in your life, is the person you should marry? The best way to increase the chances that you've made the right decision is to follow this simple sampling strategy:

You will maximize your probability of finding the best spouse if you date about 37 percent of the available candidates in your life and then choose to stay with the next candidate who is better than all the previous ones.

Suppose that during your single years you will date 100 candidates for marriage. If you marry the first one that comes along then your chance of finding the best of the lot is only 1/100. The same probability is applicable if you date 99 of them and marry the last one. The chance that the last candidate is the best choice is only 1 in 100. Following the formula allows you to sample the options and increases the likelihood that you will choose the best of the available choices. (Note: This strategy also works for similar choices, such as buying a house.)

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Need to multiply a double digit number by 11? Add the two digits and place their sum in the middle. (Example: 11 x 36 = (3+6) = 396 = 396) If the sum produces a double digit add it to the first digit. (Example: 65 x 11 = (6+5) 6115 = 715)

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Gmail Hacks

One little known feature of Gmail (and other email systems) is plus addressing. Gmail will ignore anything in the first half of an email address after a plus sign so joe.p.carter+send_to_trash@gmail.com is treated in exactly the same way as joe.p.carter@gmail.com. You can put anything after the plus sign except for a space or an at (@) sign, and it will always get delivered to your Inbox. Plus Addressing is remarkably useful, as it enables you to set up filters for your incoming mail. In order to set up filters, click the "Create a filter" link to the right of the search bar. Copy the address into the To: box, and click on the Next Step button. A filter can move, star, directly archive, label, forward, and trash any message that triggers it. Select the actions you want, and click on the Create Filter button.
Because Plus Addressing effectively gives you an unlimited number of email addresses to the same Gmail inbox, it allows you to assign one to each mailing list, website, and so on that you subscribe to. You can also use it to track which email addresses have been sold to spammers, and send those to Trash automatically.

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GmailThis! is an easy way to make a Gmail email without visiting mail.google.com. Once you add the GmailThis! link to your browser's toolbar, clicking GmailThis! creates a mini-interface to Gmail prepopulated with a link to the web page you are visiting, as well as any text you have highlighted on that page. Add additional text if you wish and then email or save as draft from within GmailThis! An indispensible tool.

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Although Gmail doesn't provide a built-in feature to create group lists, Lifehacker provides a workaround: Click on Contacts (left-side menu) and choose Add Contact (top right corner). Enter a name for the group in the Name field. Then in the Primary Email field start inputting the addresses of group members. Here is the trick: leave out the first and last brackets. This is how you should do it (substituting the appropriate email addresses):

< img src="http://cache.lifehacker.com/software/uploaded/2005-08-29/GMailGroupAddress.jpg">

Then Save the address. Once you save it, you can see that GMail puts a bracket around the list of addresses. You can try it out by clicking on Compose. Next time you want to send a note to this group, just start typing in the group name and the address list will come up as an option.

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Home and Office Hacks

When the sheets and pillowcases come out of the dryer, fold them and tuck them into one of the newly-clean pillowcases before placing the package back in the linen closet. That makes it easy to grab exactly the items you need when a bed needs clean sheets.

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Have trouble peeling off those annoying stickers on the tops of CD cases? Instead of peeling the sticker before opening the CD, open the CD from the bottom by pulling down on the tabbed-hinge and flipping the front of the CD case upward, so you open the CD case bottom to top instead of left to right like you normally would. Then flip the front of the CD case backward to peel the sticker off of one half of the CD case. Then peel the remaining sticker off and re-attach your now sticker free CD case.

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Need to make a 12" measure? Take a standard sheet of 8.5" x 11" paper and fold from either top corner down to the side, lining up the side carefully, making a right triangle. The hypotenuse of the right triangle you've created is 12.02 inches - very close to being exactly one foot.

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Keep a small tube of Anbesol Gel (oral anesthetic) on your desk. If you get a painful paper cut or hangnail that keeps distracting you from your projects, put a dab of Anbesol Gel on it and wrap it with a bandaid (the bandaid keeps the gel from wiping off). Within two minutes, the annoying pain will be gone and you can get back to work distraction free.

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Need to make a rough measurement but don't have a ruler? Use a dollar bill, which is slightly more than 6" or fold it in half for a 3" measure.

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Instead of using an ice pack, partially fill a strong zip lock bag with liquid dishwashing detergent and freeze it. The detergent stays cold much longer, molds to your body better than ice, and can be re-frozen for multiple applications.

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Twice a year, make a photocopy of the contents of your wallet. Add the phone numbers you'll need to call to cancel credit cards or to renew a membership. Waiting until after your wallet has been lost or stolen is not the best time to try to remember what you carried around with you.

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Pouring a little vanilla into a can of latex paint will greatly reduce the smell.

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Make a cheap heated neck pillow by taking a cotton tube sock, filling it two-thirds full of rice, and tying off the end. Pop it in the microwave for two minutes and apply to sore neck or lower back.

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Prevent old books from smelling musty when in storage. Stick a dryer sheet between the pages of your beloved copy of Pride and Prejudice.

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Wiping shaving cream on the bathroom mirror will keep it from fogging up after a shower.

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Avoid those ice crystals that form at the top of your ice cream by placing a piece of plastic wrap right on top of the ice cream. It keeps the air out and everything stays fresh.

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Baking soda (bicarbonate of soda) makes a handy (and cheap) fire extinguisher for small electrical fires. Keep a medium-sized box in the trunk of your car or beneath the seat in case a minor blaze sparks up underneath the hood.

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Once you have your computer, TV, VCR, DVD, etc., all hooked up, take several different colors of fingernail polish to them. Dab a bit of each color on the cord and one next to the hole where the cord goes. When you move or rearrange them everything is color coordinated and a quick glance tells you where each plug goes.

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Amazon Hack
When linking to a book I often use Amazon as the reference link. Unfortunately, that often means having to use a 114 character monstrosity like this:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0596004478/qid%3D1049157816/sr%3D11-1/ref%3Dsr%5F11%5F1/104-2773718-4336742
Fortunately, such a link can be simplified. Begin by cutting all but the first string of numbers after the "ASIN":
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0596004478/
You can also cut it further by replacing "exec/obidos" with "o", as in:
http://amazon.com/o/ASIN/0596004478
That brings it down from 114 characters to a more manageable 35.

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Firefox Hacks
If you're like me you probably open several websites at a time (i.e., Gmail, Sitemeter, your blog). Using Firefox you can set your homepage to open several tabs open them all at one time. From Firefox's Tools menu click Options, General, and then enter the addresses of sites separated by a pipe symbol ( | ). If that's too complicated, simply open up all the sites in tabs and hit the "Use Current Pages" button.
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Google Hacks

When using Google, the asterisk symbol (*) can be used as a wildcard to substitute for a full word. For example, if I search "Joe Carter is *" it will return results that include "Joe Carter is smarter than me", "Joe Carter is just so ridiculously wrong", and "Joe Carter is intellectually incompetent." A particularly useful tool when you can't remember a specific word from a quote.

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Filter out adult web sites from Google search results, use the safesearch operator. Example: safesearch: sexuality statistics

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To limit your search to a particular date or range of dates that a page was indexed by Google, use "daterange:". (Note: This function uses the Julian, not Gregorian dates) Example: "yak shaving" daterange:2453820-2453829

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Getting an incoming call from an Area Code you don't recognize? Type the three numbers (i.e., 817) into Google and it will provide a map of that Area Code at the very top as well as the area that it covers.

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Need to solve a math problem or convert a unit of measure? Enter the formula (i.e., 44% * 234; 345 mi in km) into the Google search bar and the Google Calculator will deliver the solution along with the results. (If you're using Firefox this method is faster than opening the calculator function on Windows.)

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Narrow the context of your Google search by subtracting words from your results using the minus sign. For example to find the dip rather than the dance, use: salsa -dance Or to find the illness that affects only humans: virus -computer

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Need to search a blog or website that doesn't have a search box? Using Google, type site: www.url.com (where the URL is the site you want to explore) and your query into the search box.

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You can perform basic Google searches from your cell phone by sending text-message queries to 46645 (GOOGL). To search for general services in your vicinity, type a word of description followed by a period and your city/state or ZIP code (sushi.10018). To get the weather, use the same format preceded by the word "weather," or for addresses and phone numbers, by the name of the business. You can even get driving directions by typing from followed by the ZIP code of your starting point and to followed by your destination's ZIP code - for instance, from 10016 to 10018. You'll receive text-message responses free of charge (depending on your carrier's text-messaging plan) within seconds.

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Google offers a simple way to track a FedEx shipment. Simply type in the shipping number (e.g., the number found on the "Sorry we missed you" tag) into Google. Google recognizes the format (DT followed by 12 numbers) and offers you a tracking link. Click on it and you'll find out a lot more information about your package.

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Use synonyms when you want to search for a concept rather than a specific word sequence. By searching for ~nutrition ~information muffins, you tell Google to find related terms for each item tagged with a tilde (~). You'll find not only exact matches (e.g. Muffin Nutrition Information), but matches on Muffins Food Facts and Muffins Vitamin Information. Searching for ~car turns up information on trucks and vehicles. Searching for ~pen yields pencils, graphite and sketch.

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When you google the names of two major cities, Google automatically offers to search for flights. For example, you might google Dallas Chicago.
In the form labeled "Flights from Dallas, TX to Chicago, IL", enter a departure and return date and choose whether to search using Expedia, Hotwire or Orbitz.

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Getting an incoming call from an Area Code you don't recognize? Type the three numbers (i.e., 817) into Google and it will provide a map of that Area Code at the very top as well as the area that it covers.

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Some companies have a toll-free number that's buried deep on their website. One way to find the number more quickly is to search Google for the company name and the phrase "customer support." Like this: TiVo Customer Support. Another method is to search for the company name and the standard toll-free prefixes. That'll dig up some real gems. For example, "[company name] 800 OR 877 OR 888 OR 866".

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Cell Phone Hacks

Before you leave your vehicle parked in a large, crowded parking lot (amusement park, airport, sports arena, etc.), use the camera on your cell phone to take a photo of the location number (e.g, Lot 7, Row 16). Not only will this record the approximate location but the photo will provide a visual landmark as a reminder.

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If you're out shopping and find a CD, book, or other item you might want to pick up later, snap a photo of the item's barcode with your cell phone's camera. When you get home you can look the item up on Amazon or Froogle.com and find the best price.

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Online payment service PayPal has launched a new mobile service that lets you send money via cell phone. Once you activate your SMS-enabled phone, text a message to 729725 (PAYPAL) with the amount and recipient's phone number. For example, "send 5 to 4150001234." Alternately you can make a voice call to PayPal at 1-800-4PAYPAL, enter your PIN then follow the instructions to enter amount and the recipient's cell phone.

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HowTos

How to avoid crying when chopping an onion

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How to Become an Early Riser

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Email Hacks

Send out a quick email without launching Groupwise, Outlook, or Outlook Express. Right-click an empty area on your desktop and select New > Shortcut. Type mailto: in the Shortcut wizard. Then name your shortcut. Now you can just double-click the shortcut to open a blank email message.

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TiVo Tips

Want to TiVo Newer Movies? Make a wishlist with keyword such as "2004" and restrict it to the genre of Movies. Now browsing the wishlist gives you all the movies from 2004. It's a great way to see just things that were released recently.

Shortcuts

Make your start menu more powerful by adding numbered shortcuts. Create a new shortcut, for example to MS Word. Rename it to "1 - Word" and drag it onto your start menu. Now, when you want to start Word, push the Windows Key, then 1. Add more frequently used applications as needed.

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MS Word:
--Cntrl+T: Hanging indent (hit Cmd+T again to increase the hanging indent
--Cmd+Shift+T to decrease/remove the hanging indent
--Cntrl+=: Subscript (hit Cmd+= again to revert to the normal font)
--Cntrl+Shift+=: Superscript
--Cntrl+Shift+L: Start a bulleted list (this can also be accomplished by starting the sentence with an asterisk, assuming that this hasn't been turned off using the AutoCorrect menu)

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PowerPoint

When in the slide show, you can directly jump to the page by pressing the page number and then the enter key. For example, if you have to go back to page 24, just type "24 + Enter" instead of hitting the arrow keys. Just remember key slides by page numbers and you can go back and forth between them with ease. This is especially effective in the Q&A session when you need to stress your point showing certain key slides.

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While giving a slide show presentation, right-click. In Windows, choose an annotation item from the Pointer Options submenu, such as Felt Tip Pen or Ballpoint Pen. Mac users, choose Pointer Options > Pen. You can write directly on the slides: underline words, draw a picture, whatever. To return to normal use, and move onto the next slide, select Arrow from the submenu. The Windows version of PowerPoint lets you save your annotations at the end.

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In Powerpoint you can save a presentation as a series of image files. Open your presentation in PowerPoint and go to File > Save As. Save As a jpeg file.Powerpoint will automatically create a folder and put all the slides in a folder as JPG images.

Know Your Fallacies

False Dilemma -- A limited number of options (usually two) is given, while in reality there are more options. A false dilemma is an illegitimate use of the "or" operator. Putting issues or opinions into "black or white" terms is a common instance of this fallacy. (Example: Every person is either wholly good or wholly evil.)

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Argumentum Ad Ignorantiam (argument from ignorance) - Arguments of this form assume that since something has not been proven false, it is therefore true. Conversely, such an argument may assume that since something has not been proven true, it is therefore false. (This is a special case of a false dilemma, since it assumes that all propositions must either be known to be true or known to be false.) (Example: Since scientists cannot prove that global warming will occur, it probably won't.)

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Argumentum ad consequentiam - The author points to the disagreeable consequences of holding a particular belief in order to show that this belief is false. (Ex. You can't agree that evolution is true, because if it were, then we would be no better than monkeys and apes.)

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Argumentum ad hominem - The person presenting an argument is attacked instead of the argument itself. This takes many forms. For example, the person's character, nationality or religion may be attacked. Alternatively, it may be pointed out that a person stands to gain from a favorable outcome. Or, finally, a person may be attacked by association, or by the company he keeps.
There are three major forms of Attacking the Person: (1) ad hominem (abusive): instead of attacking an assertion, the argument attacks the person who made the assertion. (2) ad hominem (circumstantial): instead of attacking an assertion the author points to the relationship between the person making the assertion and the person's circumstances. (3) ad hominem (tu quoque): this form of attack on the person notes that a person does not practice what he preaches.

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Appeal to Authority -- While sometimes it may be appropriate to cite an authority to support a point, often it is not. In particular, an appeal to authority is inappropriate if: (i) the person is not qualified to have an expert opinion on the subject, (ii) experts in the field disagree on this issue; (iii) the authority was making a joke, drunk, or otherwise not being serious. (Ex: Economist John Kenneth Galbraith argues that a tight money policy s the best cure for a recession. (Although Galbraith is an expert, not all economists agree on this point.))

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Hasty Generalization -- The size of the sample is too small to support the conclusion. (Ex. - I asked six of my friends what they thought of the new spending restraints and they agreed it is a good idea. The new restraints are therefore generally popular.)

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Coincidental Correlation (post hoc ergo propter hoc) -- The name in Latin means "after this therefore because of this". This describes the fallacy. An author commits the fallacy when it is assumed that because one thing follows another that the one thing was caused by the other. (Ex. Immigration to Alberta from Ontario increased. Soon after, the welfare rolls increased. Therefore, the increased immigration caused the increased welfare rolls.

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Fallacy of the Four Terms -- A standard form categorical syllogism contains four terms. (Ex. All dogs are animals, and all cats are mammals, so all dogs are mammals. The four terms are: dogs, animals, cats and mammals.) [Note: In many cases, the fallacy of four terms is a special case of equivocation. While the same word is used, the word has different meanings, and hence the word is treated as two different terms. Consider the following example: Only man is born free, and no women are men, therefore, no women are born free. The four terms are: man (in the sense of 'humanity'), man (in the sense of 'male'), women and born free.]

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Undistributed Middle -- The middle term in the premises of a standard form categorical syllogism never refers to all of the members of the category it describes. (Ex. All Russians were revolutionists, and all anarchists were revolutionist, therefore, all anarchists were Russians. The middle term is 'revolutionist'. While both Russians and anarchists share the common property of being revolutionist, they may be separate groups of revolutionists, and so we cannot conclude that anarchists are otherwise the same as Russians in any way.)

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Illicit Major -- The predicate term of the conclusion refers to all members of that category, but the same term in the premises refers only to some members of that category. (Ex. "All Texans are Americans, and no Californians are Texans, therefore, no Californians are Americans." The predicate term in the conclusion is 'Americans'. The conclusion refers to all Americans (every American is not a Californian, according to the conclusion). But the premises refer only to some Americans (those that are Texans).)

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Fallacy of Exclusion -- Important evidence which would undermine an inductive argument is excluded from consideration. The requirement that all relevant information be included is called the "principle of total evidence." (Ex: The Leafs will probably win this game because they've won nine out of their last ten. (Eight of the Leafs' wins came over last place teams, and today they are playing the first place team.))

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Coincidental Correlation (post hoc ergo propter hoc) -- The name in Latin means "after this therefore because of this". This describes the fallacy. An author commits the fallacy when it is assumed that because one thing follows another that the one thing was caused by the other. (Ex. Immigration to Alberta from Ontario increased. Soon after, the welfare rolls increased. Therefore, the increased immigration caused the increased welfare rolls.)

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Joint Effect -- One thing is held to cause another when in fact both are the effect of a single underlying cause. This fallacy is often understood as a special case of post hoc ergo prompter hoc. (Ex. "You have a fever and this is causing you to break out in spots." (In fact, both symptoms are caused by the measles.))

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Genuine but Insignificant Cause - The object or event identified as the cause of an effect is a genuine cause, but insignificant when compared to the other causes of that event. Note that this fallacy does not apply when all other contributing causes are equally insignificant. Thus, it is not a fallacy to say that you helped cause defeat the Tory government because you voted Reform, for your vote had as much weight as any other vote, and hence is equally a part of the cause. (Ex. Smoking is causing air pollution in Edmonton. (True, but the effect of smoking is insignificant compared to the effect of auto exhaust.))

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Wrong Direction -- The relation between cause and effect is reversed. (Ex. The increase in AIDS was caused by more sex education. (In fact, the increase in sex education was caused by the spread of AIDS.))

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Complex Cause -- The effect is caused by a number of objects or events, of which the cause identified is only a part. A variation of this is the feedback loop where the effect is itself a part of the cause. (Ex. The accident was caused by the poor location of the bush. (True, but it wouldn't have occurred had the driver not been drunk and the pedestrian not been jaywalking.))

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Begging the Question (petitio principii) The truth of the conclusion is assumed by the premises. Often, the conclusion is simply restated in the premises in a slightly different form. In more difficult cases, the premise is a consequence of the conclusion. (We know that God exists, since the Bible says God exists. What the Bible says must be true, since God wrote it and God never lies. (Here, we must agree that God exists in order to believe that God wrote the Bible.))

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Irrelevant Conclusion (ignoratio elenchi) You should support the new housing bill. We can't continue to see people living in the streets; we must havecheaper housing. (We may agree that housing s important even though we disagree with the housing bill.)

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Straw Man -- The author attacks an argument which is different from, and usually weaker than, the opposition's best argument. (Example: "We should have conscription. People don't want to enter the military because they find it an inconvenience. But they should realize that there are more important things than convenience.")

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Equivocation - The same word is used with two different meanings. (Example: "Criminal actions are illegal, and all murder trials are criminal actions, thus all murder trials are illegal." (Here the term "criminal actions" is used with two different meanings.)

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Amphiboly - An amphiboly occurs when the construction of a sentence allows it to have two different meanings. (Ex: Last night I shot a burglar in my pajamas.)

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Retrospective determinism -- the logical fallacy that because something happened, it was therefore bound to happen.(Example: "When he declared himself dictator of the Roman Republic, Julius Caesar was bound to be assassinated sooner or later.")

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Historian's fallacy -- a logical fallacy that occurs when one assumes that decision makers of the past viewed events from the same perspective and having the same information as those subsequently analyzing the decision. (Example: "Japan's surprise attack on Pearl Harbor should have been predictable in the United States because of the many indications that an attack was imminent.")

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Incomplete comparison -- a misleading argument popular in advertising. For example, an advertisement might say "product X is better". This is an incomplete assertion, so can't be refuted. A complete assertion, such as "product X sells for a lower price than product Y" or "the new product X lasts longer than the old product X" could be tested and possibly refuted.

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Juxtaposition -- logical fallacy on the part of the observer, where two items placed next to each other imply a correlation, when none is actually claimed. For example, an illustration of a politician and Adolf Hitler on the same page would imply that the politician had a common ideology with Hitler. Similarly, saying "Hitler was in favor of gun control, and so are you" would have the same effect.

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Middle Ground (argumentum ad temperantiam) -- The fallacy of assuming that the middle ground between extreme points of view is the logical place to find truth. The middle ground is most often invoked when there are sharply contrasting views which are deeply entrenched. (Example: "Opinions on abortion range from banning it altogether to allowing it on demand; thus the correct view is restricted abortions.")

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Non sequitur -- Latin for "it does not follow." In formal logic, an argument is a non sequitur if the conclusion does not follow from the premise. It should be stressed that in a non sequitur, the conclusion can be either true or false, but the argument is a fallacy because the conclusion does not follow from the premise. (Example: "If my hair looks nice, all people will love me.")

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Overwhelming Exception -- a generalization which is accurate, but comes with one or more qualifications which eliminate so many cases that what remains is much less impressive than the initial statement might have led one to assume. (Example: "All right, but apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, a fresh water system, and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?" (The attempted implication (fallaciously false in this case) is that the Romans did nothing for us). This is a quotation from Monty Python's Life of Brian.)

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Poisoning the well -- a logical fallacy where adverse information about someone is pre-emptively presented to an audience, with the intention of discrediting or ridiculing everything that person is about to say. Poisoning the well is a special case of argumentum ad hominem. (Example: "Don't listen to what he says, he's a lawyer.")

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Reification -- treating a concept, an abstraction, as if it were a real, concrete thing. (Example: "Their ideology is going to ruin this country.")

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Statistical special pleading -- a logical fallacy which occurs when the interpretation of the relevant statistic is "massaged" by looking for ways to reclassify or requantify data from one portion of results, but not applying the same scrutiny to other categories. (Example: "A study of teenage gang members has shown that 40% of those who are atheists have been convicted of a violent offence. This is hundreds of times the number of people in the general population who are convicted of such offences. This clearly shows that atheism leads to violence.")

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Tu quoque -- (Latin for "You, too" or "You, also") is a line of one's defensive argument based on the concept that the adversary party also engages (or has engaged in the past) in the act for which one is accused by that party. This argumentative move works by showing that a criticism or objection applies equally to the person making it. It can be considered an ad hominem argument, since it focuses on the opposite party itself, rather than its positions.

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Suppressed correlative -- (A type of argument which tries to redefine a correlative (two mutually exclusive options) so that one alternative encompasses the other, i.e. making one alternative impossible. (Example: "All dogs are black when it is dark. Therefore, Lassie is a black dog because it is dark outside.")

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Appeal to consequences -- an argument that concludes a premise (typically a belief) to be either true or false based on whether the premise leads to desirable or undesirable consequences. (Example: ""Real estate markets will continue to rise this year because home owners enjoy the capital gains.")

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Argument from ignorance -- (argumentum ad ignorantiam a logical fallacy in which it is claimed that that a premise is true only because it has not been proven false, or that a premise is false only because it has not been proven true. (Example: "A thousand-ton piece of metal could never float. Ships need to be made of wood, or at least something that floats.")

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Argumentum ad populum -- (Latin for �appeal to the people") a fallacious argument that concludes a proposition to be true because many or all people believe it; it alleges that "If many believe so, it is so." (Example: "It's silly for you to claim that Hitler would not have attacked the United States if they hadn't entered World War II. Everyone knows that he planned to conquer the world.")

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