During the beginning of the Cold War, the US Air Force began performing experiments with rocket-sleds, a small railroad car with rockets attached, in order to test how humans were able to withstand rapid acceleration. One experiment required mounting a set of 16 accelerometers to different parts of the subject's body in order to measure the acceleration. Each sensor could be glued to its mount in one of two ways. Naturally, the technician mounting the devices installed all 16 the wrong way.
A few days later, a press conference was held and the subject of the experiment, a young Air Force captain and medical doctor named John Paul Stapp, was asked how it was possible that no one had been severely injured during the rocket sled tests. Stapp replied that is was because they took Murphy's Law under consideration, The principle was named after Edward A. Murphy, Jr, a development engineer working on the project, who is claimed to have said, “"If it can happen, it will happen.” Stapp claimed that they were able to prevent accidents by considering all the possibilities before doing a test.
Since that day in 1949, Murphy’s Law has proven itself to be one of the most consistent laws in the universe. Murphy and his team of engineers were used to dealing with design flaws and had training in how to correct them. The common man, however, has been less able to compensate for the effects of ML.
But now, thanks to some panel of experts commissioned by British Gas, you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to predict the occurrence of Murphy’s law.*
The panel, which consists of a psychologist, a mathematician, and an economist, has discovered the statistical formula for predicting Murphy’s Law occurrences to be: ((U+C+I) x (10-S))/20 x A x 1/(1-sin(F/10)). [Note: Using the Murphy’s Law calculator makes it easy to calculate the probability.]
Four variables comprise the formula (urgency (U), complexity (C), importance (I), skill (S) and frequency (F)) with each applied to a task or an event, and each scored between 0 and 9. A sixth factor, aggravation (A), was set at constant of 0.7.
"In our experts' tests, the mercilessness of [Murphy’s Law] emerged,” said Anne Morton of British Gas. “Not only do things go wrong, they do so when they are most likely to drive their victims up the wall.”
"For example, [Murphy’s Law] shows how cruel it can be when it comes to the shower turning cold just as you've shampooed. Men aren't bothered, and so the chances of it happening to them are low; women hate it and it happens far more to them."
Dr David Lewis, the psychologist on the project, says, "The lesson from this is that, to cut the seemingly unbeatable [Murphy’s Law] Gremlins down to size you need to change one of the elements in the equation.”
Lewis provides some advice that is especially useful for bloggers: "When you're emailing an important document anxiety will make it more likely that you will hit one of those mysterious keyboard combinations that make everything vanish. Try not to let your computer know you're in a hurry."
Good idea. You might notice that it takes longer than normal to read the words in this post. That's because I typed them slowly in order to fool my computer into thinking I was taking my time. It seems to have worked -- no lost data, no computer crash, no blue screen of death. Thanks, Dr. Lewis!
*The British incorrectly refer to it as Sod’s law. I’ve taken the liberty of translating the British into proper English by replacing “Sod’s Law” with “Murphy’s Law” wherever it occurs.
(HT: Bene)
1
"The panel, which consists of a psychologist, a mathmetician and an economist..." I was expecting a punch line involving the farmer's daughter.
posted on 02.10.2006 12:40 PM2
There are, of course, adjuncts to Murphy's Law. Some are familiar: bread always lands jelly-side down, etc. Here are a few immutable laws of the universe I've noticed:
Have you ever noticed how everyone who drives slower than you is an idiot and everyone who drives faster than you is a maniac?
Every house has a junk drawer.
Corrollary One: No matter what you're looking for, it's always at the back of the junk drawer.
Corrollary Two: No matter what you take out of the junk drawer, no matter how small, you can't get the drawer closed again.
Anyone think of other laws?
posted on 02.10.2006 6:38 PM3
I forget who wrote the principal corollary to Murphy's law:
experience proves that Murphy was a wild-eyed optimist.
In short, one of the things to watch is the things that "can't" go wrong.
In my experience of working with technological and sociotechnical systems, that one has been a very important principle to keep in mind.
posted on 02.11.2006 4:04 AM4
My wife cleared out my junk drawer while I was away and didn't leave it all in a box for me.
So I shouldn't go away?
Murphy was the name of the Angel holding the sword stopping Adam from going back into Eden.
posted on 02.12.2006 9:44 PM5
My wife cleared out my junk drawer while I was away and didn't leave it all in a box for me.
So I shouldn't go away?
Murphy was the name of the Angel holding the sword, stopping Adam and Eve from going back into Eden.
Please visit my serious Christian blog above, for an Australian Christian's perspective on everything, US affairs included.
posted on 02.12.2006 9:46 PM