December 28, 2004

Outtakes
12.28.04


Josh Claybourn has uncovered some intriguing demographic data on the “explosion of Christianity”, particularly in areas outside of North America and Europe:

Within the next twenty-five years the population of the world's Christians is expected to grow to 2.6 billion (making Christianity by far the world's largest faith). Stop and consider that: it will grow by 2.6 billion. From 1934-1994, the number of Christians in the world increased by 1300 percent (from 40 million to 540 million in the last 60 years), while the world's population grew only 400 percent.

But this growth has largely taken place in the Southern hemisphere and in Asia, outside the radar of most Western media. Of the approximately two billion Christians alive today (one-third of the planetary population), 560 million live in Europe and 260 in North America, for a total of 820 million. The combined number of Christians in Latin America (480 million), Africa (360 million), and Asia (313 million) is 1.15 billion. On a percentage basis, then, almost 60 percent of Christians in the world today live in the Third World. Jenkins forecasts that of the expected 2.6 billion Christians in the year 2025, 67 percent will live in Africa (633 million), Asia (640 million), or Latin America (460 million). Jenkins emphasizes that by 2050 only about one-fifth of the world's three billion Christians will be non-Hispanic whites. As Jenkins states: "Soon the phrase 'a White Christian' may sound like a curious oxymoron, as mildly surprising as 'a Swedish Buddhist.' Such people can exist, but a slight eccentricity is implied."

I suspect it won’t be long before we see countries like Brazil and Korea sending missionaries to covert the “godless heathens” of Spain and England.

*****

In an article on technology in 2004, Salon writer Andrew Leonard makes a peculiar claim about the influence of blogs:

In retrospect, Dean's loss should probably have been a sign to proponents of Web-based political activism that they needed to spend some time thinking of creative ways to convert a vibrant online movement into an effective offline tool. But in the heat of the campaign there was no time for such introspection, and instead bloggers -- the most powerful of whom seemed to be liberals, epitomized by the denizens of Daily Kos -- raced forward with their crusades.

And for a while, things looked peachy. With the advent of blog-based ads, money poured in to political campaigns (not to mention to the bloggers themselves). Bloggers also managed to affect the political news cycle (remember "Rathergate"?) and they got themselves invited to both parties' conventions. But it was hard not to think of the Democratic defeat of Nov. 2 as a Dean-in-Iowa redux for the bloggers. John Kerry raised a lot of money online, but he didn't win. And neither did many of the congressional candidates who'd financed their campaigns with blog money. Readers of Daily Kos funneled half a million dollars to a "Kos dozen" of congressional candidates, and every single one of those lost at the polls.

So what happened? Was the entire online political effort something of an illusion -- a mere echo chamber of blue-state optimism, all sound and fury, signifying nothing? Alas, it sure seems that way now.

Let’s examine Leonard’s reasoning:

1. Liberal bloggers helped secure the defeat two Presidential and a dozen Congressional candidates.

2. Conservative bloggers gave us Rathergate.

3. Liberal bloggers appear to be the “most powerful.”

Maybe Leonard is saying that liberal bloggers were a powerful force…for the GOP. Or perhaps he just needs to listen to someone who really understands the blog revolution.

*****

For the past 14 months I’ve futilely attempted to become the Montaigne of the blogosphere, ekeing out one or two wordy essays every day. While I don’t plan to give up that aspiration (the daily mini-opuses will continue) it has put a strain on my ability to become a real blogger, so I’ve decided to experiment with more frequent posting on more varied subjects.

Instead of waiting until I have 800 words to say on a subject I’ll be throwing in more stream-of-consciousness style updating. In order that it doesn’t clog up my site, though, I’ll keep it to one daily post titled “Outakes.” The newer entries will be on top with the older ones being pushed lower into the post. Hopefully this will give you a reason to come back more often. Like several times a day. Or per hour. (I need the hits. I’ve got advertisers to please.)

Let me know what you think. Not that I care, really, but it will cause you to come back long enough to leave a comment…


comments
Rev. Mike writes:

1

Joe, I've wondered how you manage to keep cranking out the lengthier stuff for so long. I'm pretty sure you'll find this new approach a lot easier to maintain. I'll look forward to reading the new style blog just as I do the current one.

posted on 12.28.2004 3:26 PM
Linda in Whittier, CA writes:

2

I love the idea, I try to check at least every other day, but so many times I don't have time to read a long post.

posted on 12.28.2004 3:30 PM
Kevin T. Keith writes:

3

1) The short-posts thing is interesting. Depends on what you post on. Your strengths are your willingness to put together broad, informative posts and your arguments for your positions. There are thousands of "off-the-top-of-my-head" blogs. It could be a step down for you. (Your traffic-volume changes will let you know. It will be interesting to monitor.)

2) Try some kind of stronger visual separator between entries - a graphic element, or a bold-face title or something. The bullet points aren't very distinctive, and it makes the entries look like parts of a list. It took me a while to figure out what was going on until I realized the two entries were unrelated.

3) Re: blogging. Your remarks seem non-sequitur to the comments you quote. He isn't primarily commenting on the relative strength of the liberal and conservative blogospheres, but the importance of blogging in general. As for the former, he was talking about blogs in campaigns ("Web-based political activism", "the entire online political effort"), not overall. And, finally, it seems obvious that the liberal political blogs were better organized and more tightly integrated into their respective campaigns. Conservative candidates had very little like that. The blogs surely didn't contribute to the candidates' electoral losses; by every estimate Dean would have lost sooner without his online effort, and Kerry's spending gap was closed only by the independent 527s. The Rather thing was embarrassing but minor; the campaign-coordinating blogs were new and very influential. (Think the Republicans won't have campaign bloggers next time?)

posted on 12.28.2004 3:57 PM
~DS~ writes:

4

BTW- a little off topic Joe, hope you don't mind. The death count from that quake is topping 60,000 people and could go significantly higher. Some villages are just gone. Nothing left but sand. They could use any help we can spare. There are literally ten million people homeless. This is the kind of destruction you'd see with a nuclear strike into the heart of a big city. There's a list of donation venues at The Command Post. Red Crescent and so forth.

posted on 12.28.2004 4:07 PM
J. Hagglund writes:

5

For what it's worth, I have no problem whatsoever with your Montaigne aspirations and don't see any need for you to change to what is called a more "bloggish" style. If more blogs were like yours, I'd have probably jumped on the blog bandwagon a lot sooner.

posted on 12.28.2004 4:09 PM
Joe Carter writes:

6

Mike Joe, I've wondered how you manage to keep cranking out the lengthier stuff for so long.

I gave up sleeping. ; )

So are you back to regular blogging? You kind of dropped out of site for a while.

I'm pretty sure you'll find this new approach a lot easier to maintain.

I’ll still have the usual daily essays. This will just be in addition to the normal stuff I write about.

Linda I love the idea, I try to check at least every other day, but so many times I don't have time to read a long post.

I often feel guilty about writing such lengthy posts. One of the main reasons I write so few posts daily is that I don’t want to take up too much of people’s time. There are too many blogs to have to spend all day reading lengthy diatribes on arcane subjects.

Kevin: 1) The short-posts thing is interesting. Depends on what you post on. Your strengths are your willingness to put together broad, informative posts and your arguments for your positions. There are thousands of "off-the-top-of-my-head" blogs. It could be a step down for you. (Your traffic-volume changes will let you know. It will be interesting to monitor.)

I’ll still keep the same old stuff coming. This will just be in addition to my normal output. All that might change is that I have less time to spend in the comments section.

2) Try some kind of stronger visual separator between entries - a graphic element, or a bold-face title or something. The bullet points aren't very distinctive, and it makes the entries look like parts of a list. It took me a while to figure out what was going on until I realized the two entries were unrelated.

You’re right. I need to find a better graphical element.

3) Re: blogging. Your remarks seem non-sequitur to the comments you quote. He isn't primarily commenting on the relative strength of the liberal and conservative blogospheres, but the importance of blogging in general.

Then why did he say “the most powerful of whom seemed to be liberals”?

As for the former, he was talking about blogs in campaigns ("Web-based political activism", "the entire online political effort"), not overall. And, finally, it seems obvious that the liberal political blogs were better organized and more tightly integrated into their respective campaigns.

I think most of us conservative bloggers would heartily disagree. Look at Blogs4Bush or the Thune blogs. Just because it didn’t receive the same amount of attention (naturally) doesn’t mean that these blogs weren’t as intricately involved.

posted on 12.28.2004 4:12 PM
Lex Rex writes:

7

Joe,

What about a combination to take the heat off. Your topics seem to have a potential life for days and weeks with the comments. The only reason they die is by moving down below more recent posts. What about one good lengthy one per week that remains higher up, just below your short post section. That will help keep those who like your lengthy blogs coming back, and remaining for a time, and bring in frequent newbies. And I think you enjoy writing the lengthy blogs as much as we enjoy reading them.

posted on 12.28.2004 4:20 PM
John writes:

8

I think that Lex makes a good point--though I doubt you would be happy with one long post a week:)

Perhaps you should approach another publication about writing (in the way Glenn Reynolds writes for MSN, The Guardian, etc.). First Things, Touchstone, Religion & Liberty, NRO, etc. Those long posts are generally top notch! Spread the wealth. Also, it might be a good way to attract new readers (with evangelicaloutpost in your byline), and you could cross-post articles or link to them. Lol..don't you love other people offering obnoxious, intrusive, and possibly incorrect advice, especially people like me who don't run blogs or essays as good as yours!

Whatever you do, we will keep reading, I am sure.

posted on 12.28.2004 4:29 PM
Joe Carter writes:

9

J. Hagglund For what it's worth, I have no problem whatsoever with your Montaigne aspirations and don't see any need for you to change to what is called a more "bloggish" style.

It certainly won't be a radical change -- simply one more post thrown into the daily mix. While it may not not be a section that is often read, it will allow me the freedom to point to other interesting links that I find. Too often I've taken the "all or nothing" approach and failed to pass along some worthy posts on other blogs.

posted on 12.28.2004 4:31 PM
~DS~ writes:

10

Yeah you can't expect to churn out a high quality essay every day or even every other day, I wouldn't think Joe. It seems like it would become a time issue, not to mention that kind of self imposed pressure could conceivably ruin the fun of it.

posted on 12.28.2004 4:39 PM
Rev. Mike writes:

11

So are you back to regular blogging? You kind of dropped out of site for a while.

Yeah, I dropped off over the summer because I picked up some new responsibilities at work, and the boss didn't feel the obligation to accommodate the blogging I'd been doing at work. ;)

Also, I ran into a little writer's block, but hopefully I've found my voice again.

posted on 12.28.2004 4:51 PM
danny fast writes:

12

With my first comment to your site I'll say that I like this but it's a bit disconnected. The replies will become confusing as people will respond to one story and not another and perhaps, if it happens here, people will reply to each other.

posted on 12.28.2004 7:04 PM
Wall writes:

13

Joe:
Your essays are of high quality. I have laughed at your self-deprecating humor and I have been been moved and stimulated by your ethics. You have set the bar very high for yourself with the length and breadth of your writing. If you intend to insert a "slice of life" literary style,
remember that some of us are very interested in your faith in Jesus, in your daily walk, and in your service in the Marine Corps.

Eph 3:20 Now unto him that is able to do exceeding abundantly above all that we ask or think, according to the power that worketh in us,
Eph 3:21 Unto him be glory in the church by Christ Jesus throughout all ages, world without end. Amen.

posted on 12.28.2004 7:58 PM
Ed Jordan writes:

14

Sounds like a good idea. Of course, I trust you've violated your most cherished beliefs and cloned yourself -- failing that, I don't know how you'll write two essays, spar with several hundred cutthroat commenters, and become evangelicalism's Glenn Reynolds on a daily basis.

But if anyone can do it, you can.

posted on 12.28.2004 9:59 PM
corrie writes:

15

Keep up the good work, Joe. Have a look at Bill Whittle's ejectejecteject.com for an example of taking a series of blog essays and turning them into a book.

Ed, Joe only has a handful of truly cutthroat commenters, and there are a couple of semi-regular tag team members who appear in his corner from time to time. :-D

posted on 12.28.2004 11:43 PM
Reid writes:

16

Your observations on Leonard's essay in Salon are good, but don't be too hard on that guy. He and the Business/Technology section he edits are the only reasons I bother hitting that site anymore.

Like seemingly all of the Salonites, he's appears to be a leftist, but he's certainly not a foaming-at-the-mouth variety like Joe Conason and much of what he has to say is rather apolitical and levelheaded.

Perhaps the reason Salon continues to hemorrhage cash is that it has become the Mother Jones of the online world, yes?

posted on 12.29.2004 9:25 AM
Lumpy writes:

17

As Christianity starts spreading more quickly to non-Western civilizations, and, in the not-too-distant future, as non-Western Christians outnumber Western Christians, I wonder how this change will change the current dynamic:

Right now, Western Christian ministries spread the Gospel, and other Western ideas and values to the East. Soon, though, as Eastern peoples and thought start to dominate Christianity, their "version" of Christianity may change. And then, as Joe pointed out, they might start sending missionaries back West, with their own version of Christianity. Not radically different, but tweaked a bit.

How will the West deal with this?

How will American Christians feel when they are no seen as the dominant Christians in the world?

How will American/Western Christians feel when a majority of Christianity doesn't agree with their views on certain religous topics?

I have a feeling that the Christians in the US and the West won't like it.

As Huntington predicted, this might be another facet to the clash of civilizations...

posted on 12.29.2004 1:34 PM
Mr Ed writes:

18

And then, as Joe pointed out, they might start sending missionaries back West, with their own version of Christianity. Not radically different, but tweaked a bit.

Actually, Korean presbyterians and Nigerian Anglicans have already begun missions, of sorts, in the USA. And, rather than being "tweaked" they tend to be more orthodox than our own churches. They are certainly more orthodox than many of the TBN-styled evangelists that come from America (not intending to offend but this is my sincere belief).

posted on 12.29.2004 8:06 PM
Joel Haas writes:

19

"Of the approximately 2 billion Christians alive today...560 million live in Europe and 260 in North America, for a total of 820 million"

I could be way off, but I've heard that Europe's Christian population is more like 32 million. (or at least that regularly attend church) Europe is a dead nation with regards to the Christian faith and the the term "European Christian" is almost already an oxymoron.

“Every year, some 2,765,100 church attenders in Europe and North America cease to be practising Christians within the 12-month period, an average loss of 7,600 every day” (missiologist David B. Barrett)

posted on 12.30.2004 1:31 PM