I'm a Texas Republican. But on one day every four years I wish I were an Undeclared Yankee. For there is no place a political junkie like me would rather be than in New Hampshire on the day of the primary.
New Hampshire's election laws appear to have been designed by an evil genius with a single goal of 'make it interesting.” To begin with, the state law requires that, without exception, NH will holds its Presidential primary seven days before anyone else. By taking the lead the small state not only gets to a say in the eventual nominee but gets to drain the coffers of both the campaigns and the media.
Being first, though, will only get you so far. That's why NH throws in a wild card. New Hampshire allows individuals who register as 'undeclared” to vote in either the Democratic Primary or the Republican Primary. This seems like a trivial matter until you realize the implications. A large enough group of Republican-leaning 'undeclared voters” could determine who will finish in either first or second place in the primary. (This is significant when you consider that for the past 50 years the Democratic nomination went to one of the two frontrunners coming out of NH).
The voters seem to revel in this ambiguity. Of the 690,159 registered voters, 260,021 (38%) are 'undeclared”, 253,504 (37%) are Republicans, and only 176,634 (26%) are Democrats. Undeclared voters essentially determine who wins the primary. Even if every single Democrat decided to rally behind one candidate, the undeclared voters, in theory at least, could override them by choosing their own man. Now that's political influence.
What's surprising is that so many pundits seem to assume that all of the independent voters are essentially Democrats in everything but name.* Let's assume that half of the undeclared category leans toward Democrats and the other tilts Republican. That still leaves nearly 130,000 Republican leaning independents. For a Democratic primary expecting a total of 184,000 votes, the Right-leaning independents have the ability to storm the polls and determine the winner.
Will this happen? It's hard to tell. Even more difficult is deciding who they would choose. Personally, I would go with Clark since he appears to be the most likely non-Dean candidate to implode before Election Day. But other voters may choose the more 'conservative” Lieberman.
With so many variables in play it's impossible to predict what will happen. All that can be known for sure is that we are in for one wild ride. And that when all is said and done, 'undeclared” will have the final say.
*This is particularly curious considering that NH is such a Republican state. In the 1992 primaries, 8 of the 10 counties had a majority of voters who were registered Republicans. (Carroll and Grafton counties even had more voters registered as Undeclared than Democrat.)
Belknap R-D-U (5%)
Carroll R-U-D (4%)
Cheshire R-D-U (6%)
Coos D-R-U (3%)
Grafton R-U-D (7%)
Hillsborough R-D-U (29%)
Merrimack R-D-U (11%)
Rockingham R-D-U (23%)
Strafford D-R-U (9%)
Sullivan R-D-U (3%)