January 16, 2004

Does the Iowa Caucus Matter?


Since 1976 there have been five elections with an open Democratic nomination. How reliable has the Iowa Caucus been at predicting the future nominee? Well, that depends.

If one of the candidates is the current vice president, the Caucus is a good predictor with 100% accuracy on two elections (Mondale and Gore). When the vice-president isn’t running, the Caucus is a less than reliable oracle. Only one candidate (Jimmy Carter) out of three elections won the caucus and eventually became the nominee.

Here is the caucus data since 1976:

1976 (6 candidates)
Caucus winner: Jimmy Carter; Nominee: Jimmy Carter

1980 – Incumbent (Carter)

1984 (8 candidates)
Caucus winner: Walter Mondale; Nominee: Walter Mondale

1988 (7 candidates)
Caucus winner: Richard Gephardt; Nominee: Michael Dukakis

1992 (5 candidates)
Caucus winner: Tom Harkin; Nominee: Bill Clinton

1996 – Incumbent (Clinton)

2000
Caucus winner: Al Gore; Nominee: Al Gore


comments
Steve writes:

1

The Iowa Caucus is about Iowans selecting delegates and platform planks.

That out-of-staters want to turn it into something else is their own business.

I guess it might help business a little. Provides for some entertainment in January on the frozen prairie.

posted on 01.16.2004 11:30 PM
Kevin T. Keith writes:

2

Today's New York Post has an amusing and interesting Op-Ed by Peter Beinart (of The New Republic [well, at least it isn't Penthouse - I guess the Post gets to keep its conservative credentials]) about the caucus system and its relevance for different candidates.

http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/15880.htm

He points out that turnout averages barely 10% of registered voters due to the inconvenience of the caucus meetings, and that voting is not by secret ballot. He concludes that this favors candidates tied to interest groups that can mobilize voter blocs, and calls for centrist candidates to blow off the caucuses entirely (as McCain did, and Lieberman and Clark are doing now).

posted on 01.17.2004 11:35 AM
Mark Byron writes:

3

If you take Harkin out of the mix (as a native son, he was a shoo-in), '88 was the only failure.

Jimmy Carter gave us the modern Iowa focus, as he did the retail politics needed to do well, announcing early and living in Iowa, giving him a win move past better-known candidates.

posted on 01.17.2004 2:44 PM
Mike from Iowa writes:

4

Well, one more day and all the pundits will be somewhere else. I plan to attend my caucus, primarily to introduce a resolution, but I'll be "voting" too. Voting isn't a good description of what happens at a caucus, though. I suppose organizing into a preference group is similar to marking a ballot, but there's a significant amount of persuasion thrown in to the whole caucus process. More info is here (sponsored by the Iowa Democratic party): www.caucus2004.org.
Mike

posted on 01.18.2004 7:18 AM
tgirsch writes:

5

Does the Iowa Caucus matter? I guess it depends on how you mean "matter." The result is Iowa isn't important in the grand scheme of things, but the process in Iowa does matter. It affects the terms of the debate, if nothing else.

posted on 01.19.2004 9:44 AM